UFC Fight Night Shields vs Ellenberger Live Odds, Favorites, Free Picks, Tips and Expert Predictions – UFC Fight Night Live Free Bets from UFC Vegas Handicapping Expert Eric Moore from the National Sports Advisors: Check out the UFC Fight Night Live Betting Tips, Vegas Odds, Free Bets and Handicapping preview from expert UFC handicapper/tipster Eric Moore below. If you are interested in betting on our UFC Fight Night Live Shields vs Ellenberger Odds and Predictions and want betting lines, than simply skip to the latest UFC Betting odds from Bodog.
UFC Fight Night Live – Middleweight Bout
Alan “The Talent” Belcher vs. Jason “The Athlete” MacDonald
Alan “The Talent” Belcher (15-5) is 4-1 in his last five fights earning fight night bonuses in the most recent four. Belcher uses a fast paced muay thai style to keep his opponents on their heels and guessing where his next strike will come from. Coming off of a submission victory over always tough Patrick Cote, Belcher was gaining steam in the middleweight division until he was sidelined with an eye injury last August. Belcher has been on the shelf for over a year and will be looking to return to form and work his way up the middleweight ladder.
Coming in and out of the UFC since 2006 Jason “The Athlete” MacDonald (26-14) has struggled with consistency his entire career. After winning six in a row in 2006 he hasn’t been able to string together more than three victories since. In 2010 in a fight with John Salter he broke his leg while attempting a takedown and the injury kept him out of commission for nearly a year. His return fight he choked out Ryan Jensen just 1:37 into the first round.
While Belcher can hold his own on the ground this is going to be a classic striker versus grappler match. MacDonald (+220) has shown he can get picked apart if he is not able to get the fight to the mat. On the other hand Belcher (-280) has shown serviceable ground skills coupled with the ability to knock anyone out with a well placed punch. Belcher keeps this fight on the feet and abuses MacDonald before scoring a knockout.
Prediction – Alan “The Talent” Belcher by way of knockout
UFC Fight Night Live – Featherweight Bout
Jonathan Brookins vs. Erik “New Breed” Koch
The winner of The Ultimate Fighter 12 Jonathan Brookins (12-3) is riding a four fight win streak. The last time Brookins fought was against Michael Johnson in The Ultimate Fighter finals where he won by unanimous decision. He is known for being able to control his opponents with his wrestling and take advantage when the fight hits the mat. His favorite form of attack his jiu-jitsu ending half of his wins by chokes. This is the first real test Brookins will face after winning The Ultimate Fighter and being sidelined with injuries for nine months.
Erik “New Breed” Koch (12-1) started his career 9-0 before losing his first bout in the WEC to Chad Mendes. His last two fights have brought him Knockout of the Night honors, once in the WEC and once in UFC. Koch sports very heavy hands and has a well-rounded submission game to compliment his striking. He has ended seven fights by way of submission: three by rear-naked choke, two by triangle choke and two by arm bar.
This is another fight that will play out as a striker versus grappler match. Although Brookins (N/A) is a serviceable striker he is far better when on the ground. In the first round of The Ultimate Fighter finale Brookins found himself getting picked apart on the feet and took the unanimous decision by using his wrestling in the second and third. Koch (N/A) won’t be scared to go to the ground but he’d prefer this fight stays standing. Brookins will score some takedowns but before the final bell Koch will use his superior striking to stop Brookins assault.
Predicition – Erik “New Breed” Koch by way of TKO
UFC Fight Night Live – Middleweight Bout
Court “The Crusher” McGee vs. “The Ox” Dongi Yang
The second Ultimate Fighter winner to compete on this card Court “The Crusher” McGee (12-1) won the 11th season of the show. Usually preferring to stand and bang with his opponents it was unusual to see him win his last two fights using jiu-jitsu. To win The Ultimate Fighter McGee tapped out Kris McCray with a rear-naked choke and followed up by submitting Ryan Jensen via arm triangle choke. Due to injuries this will be McGee’s first fight since October of 2010.
“The Ox” Dongi Yang (10-1) has finished nine of his ten wins by TKO and the other by submission. Yang’s first loss came in his UFC debut where he lost a very close split decision to Chris Camozzi. That fight marked not only his first loss but also the first time Yang has gone to a decision. Yang returned and put up a solid performance against Rob Kimmons earning a TKO victory in the closing moments of the second round.
One of the major keys to Yang’s (N/A) game is to get fighters on their back and rain down vicious ground and pound. Yang is going to have problems getting McGee (N/A) to the ground given his strong wrestling background and his high level striking. The difference in this fight is going to be the heavy leather that McGee is able to throw. Look for McGee to use that power to keep Yang honest on the feet and make him be obvious when he’s coming in for a takedown.
Prediction – Court “The Crusher” McGee by way of unanimous decision
UFC Fight Night Live – Welterweight Bout
Jake Shields vs. Jake “The Juggernaut” Ellenberger
Going 15-1 in his last sixteen bouts Jake Shields (26-5-1) is truly among the elite fighters in the welterweight division. Shields first loss in five years came to arguably the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world Georges St-Pierre. Shields looked good but St-Pierre proved too tall of a task for him handing Shields a unanimous decision loss. He has demonstrated improved striking throughout his career but what has never been in question is his jiu-jitsu. Shields is at his best when he can get in tight and drag opponents to the ground forcing them into a grappling match.
Jake “The Juggernaut” Ellenberger (25-5) is 4-1 in the UFC and is currently on a four fight win streak. Ellenberger is a very strong wrestler who prefers to take fighters down and beat them up within the guard. In the standup he is known for his kickboxing and has heavy hands ending fifteen fights by way of TKO or KO. Ellenberger is on the rise in the welterweight division and looks to keep moving up with a win over one of the best in the world.
Both of these guys are scrappy on the feet and have a very strong wrestling game. The problem that Ellenberger (+160) is going to run into is that everything he does well Shields does a little bit better. Ellenberger has a great grappling game; Shields (-200) has some of the best grappling in the world. Ellenberger has been improving his standup and becoming better overall; Shields showed that his striking is better than ever before by holding his ground in a loss to GSP. Essentially Shields is a better and more experienced against top tier talent version of Ellenberger. Bettors can count on Shields controlling this fight where ever it goes.
Prediction – Jake Shields by way of unanimous decision
UFC-MMA Betting Odds from BoDog Sportsbook
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