UFC 129 Odds, Favorites, Free Picks and Expert Predictions -St-Pierre vs Shields Line and Preview: The best fighter at welterweight and arguably the pound-for-pound king Georges “Rush” St-Pierre is set to enter the octagon at UFC 129 on April 30 at the Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Former WEC lightweight champion Ben Henderson faces off against jiu-jitsu fighter Mark Bocek. Two former light heavyweight champions square off when Randy “The Natural” Couture takes on Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida. The first and current UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo fights former TKO featherweight champion Mark Hominick. In the main event one of the most dominant fighters to ever step in the cage in Georges “Rush” St-Pierre puts his welterweight title on the line against Cesar Gracie standout Jake Shields.
UFC 129 Preview: Ben Henderson vs Mark Bocek
Ben Henderson (12-2) is a relatively new face to MMA, making his debut in November of 2006. Only three years after making his debut he found himself faced with the opportunity to claim the WEC lightweight interim championship. After defeating Donald Cerrone to claim the interim belt he went on to beat Jamie Varner by guillotine choke to earn the undisputed lightweight title. Suffering only the second loss in his career to Anthony Pettis he lost his lightweight title in a bout that earned Fight of the Night and showcased Henderson as not only one of the most exciting fighters in the game but also as having one of the best chins. Pettis landed one of the most spectacular head kicks ever seen in MMA, jumping off the cage and hitting Henderson right on the button. Henderson gamely fought back off his back but ultimately was defeated by unanimous decision.
Canada’s own Mark Bocek (9-3) is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt and has won four of his last five fights via submission. Bocek made his UFC debut in 2007 where he suffered a loss to the current lightweight champion Frankie Edgar. Since then he has gone 5-2 and has earned himself two submissions of the night honors. Along with having a black belt he has proven that he is quite accomplished on the ground. He has studied the art for over fifteen years and seven of his wins have come by submission. As a side note Bocek is 6-1 in his home country of Canada.
Bocek is a very dangerous fighter when it goes to the mat but there is an adage that goes along with MMA, every fight starts on its feet. Henderson is a crisp, confident striker that can mix in wild and traditional striking. He’s a fighter that is incapable of being in a boring fight and can finish on the feet or the ground. Bocek has excellent submissions but it’s nothing that Henderson hasn’t seen in the past. Henderson has had his limbs contorted in the most awkward ways yet has never tapped to an arm or leg submission. Bocek is (EV) in this fight and Henderson is sitting at (-130). Bettors can feel confident with backing Henderson in this fight.
Prediction – Henderson by way of TKO
UFC 129 Preview: Randy “The Natural” Couture vs Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida
Randy Couture (19-10) is Mr. UFC. A former two-time champion at light heavyweight and three-time at heavyweight, the first ever to hold belts in two different weight classes. He holds the record for most title fights at fifteen and is going to be competing is his 24th UFC bout. There are no accolades that the man hasn’t achieved and he is already a member of the UFC Hall of Fame. He has achieved all these things and is still fighting at the age of 47. When in the cage Couture employs a blend of grappling and dirty boxing that grinds away at his opponents. He is one of the best ever at knowing exactly what his strengths are and using them to break his opponents down. Couture is riding a three fight win streak coming into this fight.
Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida (16-2) is a prime example of MMA fans anointing a fighter as the second coming far too quickly. Leading up to his first title defense in October of 2009 Machida was widely considered untouchable, which was reflected by the fact that he was a huge favorite over the challenger Mauricio “Shogun” Rua. Although Machida walked out the victor by unanimous decision it was shrouded in controversy and Shogun had made the once invincible karate kid look remarkably human. Dana White issued an immediate rematch and Machida’s remarkably human image took a bigger hit by way of a crushing overhand right to the temple by Rua, followed by a barrage of punches from mount that put Machida out cold. Machida came back to fight Quinton “Rampage” Jackson and had his own taste of being on the wrong side of controversy losing a split decision that sparked a lot of buzz around the MMA world.
Machida uses a very unusual style that it is not often scene in the octagon. He is a karate fighter that uses a wide stance and depends on his elusiveness. When he attacks he darts in and out giving him the opportunity to land a few blows but leaves the majority of his opponents befuddled by his timing. If Randy (+250) is going to take this fight he needs to close the distance early and often, keep Machida against the fence and the ground and most importantly avoid the awkward style of striking Machida brings to the cage. Machida being the favorite at (-350) needs to do what he’s done to most of his opponents, use his elusiveness to keep the distance and wear Couture out with his striking from the outside. Machida is looking to get himself back in title contention and adding a UFC Hall of Famer to his resume of wins is a good start.
Prediction – Machida by way of KO
Featherweight ChampionshipBout
UFC 129 Preview: Jose Aldo vs Mark Hominick
Having fought in the UFC, Affliction, TKO and WEC Mark Hominick (20-8) has been around the MMA block. Having competed in featherweight and lightweight he has faced many fighters of different size and strength. Hominick also is a former champion in TKO at the featherweight class. He earned his title shot by beating George Roop via punches in January of this year. Hominick also has the ability to finish fights wherever he finds himself. Of his twenty wins nine have come by way of KO and seven through submissions. In 2010 he won Sherdog’s Round of the Year in a TKO victory against Yves Jabouin.
Most MMA experts consider Jose Aldo (18-1) one of the three best pound-for-pound fighters in the world. He hasn’t lost since 2005 and in that time has ripped through eleven fighters, eight of them from within the WEC. His poster win came against ultra popular Urijah Faber. For 25 minutes Aldo controlled every aspect of the fight and landed so many leg kicks that Faber’s trainer carried him to his corner after the fourth. He also has a fight under his belt that lasted all of 8 seconds after he landed a flying knee right out of the gate. Aldo was suppose to make his first defense of his title in November of last year but was forced to withdrawal from the fight due to a neck injury. He has been awarded Knockout of the Night three times and holds the record for most consecutive wins in the WEC at eight. Because of the merger of WEC and UFC this will be the first time a featherweight belt has been defended within the UFC promotion.
Mark Hominick is a warrior and is going to give anyone that steps into the octagon with him problems. Unfortunately for Mark there is a reason his is a (+330) in this fight. He is facing a fighter that is on a different level even among the most elite of the sport. Since entering the WEC Aldo has been unstoppable and rarely even shows a chink in his armor. Aldo is going to dictate the pace of this fight and is going to take it where ever he wants. Look for Aldo to keep it standing but if he feels like taking it to the ground he will be able to at will. Aldo is a well deserved favorite at (-420) and bettors can rest easy with backing Aldo in this fight.
Prediction – Aldo by way of KO
Welterweight Championship Bout
UFC 129 Preview: Georges “Rush” St-Pierre vs Jake Shields
Jake Shields (26-4-1) career is among the elite in the MMA. He has held belts in four different promotions and is currently on a fifteen fight win streak over the last five years and hasn’t lost a fight by stoppage since March of 2000. He is most comfortable when the fight is on the mat. He holds a black belt in Cesar Gracie BJJ and has won ten fights by way of submission. His last pre-UFC fight was against the always difficult to handle Dan Henderson. Shields got himself in trouble in the first due to the hammer of a right hand that Henderson possess. The next 4 rounds were all Shields. He was able to control the former Olympic wrestler on the ground and smothered him for 20 minutes. His first fight in the UFC was for the number one contender spot which he won via split decision.
He is the number one welterweight in the world. He is the number one pound-for-pound fighter in the world. He has the most well rounded skill set in the world. Georges “Rush” St-Pierre (21-2) embodies what it is to be a champion and a mixed martial artist. Humble, intelligent and always personable outside the cage and is always up to the task to take care of business inside of it. His skill set allows him to do whatever he wants inside the cage and he has one of the best strategists in his corner, Greg Jackson, which makes him the most dangerous fighter in the world. In March of 2010 he took on British slugger Dan Hardy who has the ability to put anyone face down with one left hook. St-Pierre patiently waited for his openings and had Hardy on his back defending submission attempt after submission attempt for nearly the entire 25 minutes. His last title defense he took on Josh Koscheck, one of the best wrestlers at 170 pounds. St-Pierre forced the fight to stay on the feet and fed Koscheck jab after jab in a one sided unanimous decision. He is a one of a kind athlete that is dangerous in any position in the octagon and forces opponents to fight where they feel the least comfortable.
This is a fight that MMA fans have been waiting for. Since Shields has been under contract in different organizations for so long it had seemed like a long shot that it would happen. Now on Saturday, April 30th we will see who the true king of the welterweight division is. Shields being the underdog (+300) is going to be looking to take this fight to the ground immediately. His standup has looked shaky in previous fights and St-Pierre is a fighter that will capitalize on any little mistake that his opponents make. The problem that Shields will face is that St-Pierre is a world class wrestler who showcases it in every fight. Shields will not be able to take St-Pierre down so he is going to have to hope to pull guard or move in on a GSP mistake, which are few and far between. GSP (-500) is going to decide where he wants to take this fight. He’s going to keep it standing to avoid the great jiu-jitsu of Shields and use his superior striking to take Shields out. The pound-for-pound king will still sit atop of this list after this fight, bettors can count on it.
Prediction – St-Pierre by way of TKO
UFC 129 Odds from BetUS Sportsbook
Jake Shields +325
Georges St Pierre -450
Welterweight Championship 5 rounds – Rogers Centre – Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Mark Hominick +350
Jose Aldo -500
Featherweight Championship 5 rounds – Rogers Centre – Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Randy Couture +250
Lyoto Machida -350
Light Heavyweight 3 rounds – Rogers Centre – Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Mark Bocek +115
Ben Henderson -145
Lightweight 3 rounds – Rogers Centre – Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Jason Brilz -110
Vladimir Matyushenko -120
Light Heavyweight 3 rounds – Rogers Centre – Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Rory MacDonald -110
Nate Diaz -120
Welterweight 3 rounds – Rogers Centre – Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Sean Pierson +160
Jake Ellenberger -200
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