2014 World Cup Final Odds, Free Picks and Predictions: Argentina vs Germany Free Tip: It will be a rubber match of sorts when Argentina and Germany in the 2014 World Cup Final Sunday in Rio de Janeiro in a battle between two teams ranked in the top five in the FIFA World Rankings. Although Germany holds a 4-1-1 edge in World Cup play, the two sides have split a pair of previous meetings in the final match. Argentina won the 1986 World Cup with Germany getting revenge four years later. Neither team has won a World Cup title since, but that is about to change for one country.
Not surprisingly, Argentina has relied heavily on superstar Lionel Messi during its charge to the title match. While Messi hasn’t been an unstoppable scoring machine, he has scored a team-high four goals and assisted on another so he has had a hand in five of the eight goals Argentina has scored during the World Cup. Perhaps more importantly, his ability to draw two and three defenders has forced opponents to focus their attention in stopping him rather than on attacking. As a result, Argentina has surrendered just three goals the entire tournament and hasn’t allowed a single goal since the knockout stage began.
A balanced offensive attack has fueled Germany’s run to the final match. Thomas Mueller has led the way with five goals, but Germany has scored 17 goals overall, including seven in its drubbing of host-nation Brazil in the semifinals. The defense has more than held its own, as well. Germany shut out Cristiano Ronaldo and Portugal in pool play and shut out a high-scoring France squad in the knockout stage. A 2-2 tie against Ghana in pool play has been the one blip on the radar for Germany, but otherwise, this team has been in control of every match it has played.
Argentina Wins If:
For Argentina to win the match, Messi and company will have to control possession. Germany has a ton of quality scoring options. If Argentina allows Germany to continue to push the ball past midfield and into Argentina’s territory, it will only be a matter of time before Germany finds the back of the net. For his part, Messi needs to once again shoulder the lone on offense. Ideally, he can make one or two spectacular scoring plays of his own, but at the very least, he needs to continue to draw multiple defenders on a regular basis in order to set up his teammates with scoring opportunities. If Argentina can control the ball and make sure the game is decided by which team can capitalize on limited scoring chances, Argentina has the X-factor in Messi to pull out a win.
Germany Wins If:
If Germany is going to win the match, it needs to take the fight to its opponent and overwhelm Argentina with its offensive depth. The last thing Germany wants to do is allow the threat of Messi to cause a dramatic change in its style. Germany’s aggressive style has been successful thus far and trying to change up now would be a big mistake. Yes, Germany still wants to force Messi to be a distributor rather than a scorer, but if Germany controls to ball and constantly has Argentina’s defense on its heels, Messi’s impact will be lessened anyway.
Bottom Line:
In the end, this game is a battle between arguably the most complete team in Germany and the team with the best player in Lionel Messi and Argentina. Up to this point, the attention that Messi has commanded has forced opponents to alter their strategy and dedicate a majority of their energy to shutting down Messi. However, Germany’s collective offensive firepower is at the very least equal to what Messi brings to the table, and it’s hard to imagine Germany suddenly pulling back the reins on what has been a juggernaut of an offensive attack. For the first time since group play, Argentina’s defense is going to be tested, and it is going to be tested early and often. Messi may make a big play or two, but the chemistry and all-around talent that Germany has will ultimately be too much for one player to overcome.
Prediction: Germany Wins the Match 3-1
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