Sportsbetting 101 – What Is Middling
We often get asked, what is middling?
In sports betting, lines are never set in stone.
In the NFL for example, lines for the next week’s game will open soon after the previous week is completed. Those lines may look different when they close just before game time on Thursday, Sunday, or Monday.
TIPS FOR HANDICAPPING DURING THE HOLIDAYS
Betting lines fluctuate during the week for a variety of reasons. It’s entirely possible that you place a bet at -4 but that line moves to -7 before game time. Regardless of why these line changes occur, bettors have the opportunity to capitalize on a strategy known as middling.
Definition of Middling
Middling is a sports betting strategy that can be used when lines shift. The strategy is to place wagers on both sides of the bet. The bettor attempts to win both wagers gaining a profit, but at the very least wins one side of the bet.
Middling Example
To put middling into practice, let’s say we have an NFL game where the Ravens are a 2.5-point favorite over the Steelers.
Baltimore -2.5 (-110)
Pittsburgh +2.5 (-110)
You like the Ravens to cover and place your bet. Later in the week, some factor or factors – possibly the latest injury report – move the line and Baltimore now becomes a 3.5-point favorite.
Baltimore -3.5 (-110)
Pittsburgh +3.5 (-110)
Here is where you have an opportunity to “middle” the bet. You place a wager on Pittsburgh +3.5.
The possible outcomes are as follows:
- Baltimore wins by three or more. Baltimore -2.5 wins, Pittsburgh +3.5 loses.
- Baltimore wins by fewer than three or loses. Baltimore -2.5 loses, Pittsburgh +3.5 wins.
- Baltimore wins by exactly three. Baltimore -2.5 wins, Pittsburgh +3.5 wins.
You can see that the “middle” or the final margin landing on three points wins both bets. Hence, the name “middling.” Either way though, the bettor is guaranteed a win on both sides of the bet.
Middling Strategy
Is middling profitable? There isn’t an easy answer to that question, but it surely can work if done right. If we assume -110 odds on each bet at America’s Bookie, we will either lose 0.09 units or gain 1.82 units on each middling attempt.
Knowing this, we need to hit roughly one of every 21 attempts, or about 4.8 percent, to break even.
Football gives bettors a great opportunity for middling since the final margin is a bit more predictable. There are numbers that are more common margins of victory in football. Take 3 as an example.
Since 2015 when the NFL moved the extra point back, there have been four margins of victory that occur more than 4.8 percent of the time – 3, 6, 7, and 14. The most common margin has been 3, which has occurred over 14 percent of the time.
With that information, it makes sense then to find games like the example above where 3 is the middle (or at least one of the numbers in the middle).