Are You Always Expected to Win?
A common question asked by prospective bookies is whether or not a bookie is always expected to win on every bet? While possible, a bookie isn’t going to win money on every single market.
To help me explain, let’s look at how a bookie makes money.
How Bookies Make Money
If you want to become a bookie the first step is understanding how a bookie makes money.
Essentially the goal of a bookie is to take in more money than they payout. A bookie receives money every time a client places a bet and only needs to payout clients who win.
- Setting Opening Lines: It’s important to have opening lines that are in line with the industry odds on the market or else you risk taking on too much action at a poor price.
- Market Movements: Your betting lines need to change constantly as well. When the market moves it’s important to follow the market to avoid taking in action at a bad price.
- Charging Vig: The vigorish (vig) is how bookies make money. Let’s say two teams have a 50% chance to win. Rather than offering even money odds (+100) on both teams, bookies will add vig on both sides of the bet. So instead of +100 odds, both teams will be priced at -110 odds.
- Balancing the Book: To guarantee profit on a wager, bookies need to balance the book and this is often achieved by laying off some action at another bookie, although it’s possible to have a balanced book just from the action you get from your clients.
One thing that bookies want to avoid is having an unbalanced book. Let’s say the 49ers are playing the Chiefs and your getting hammered with action on SF to cover ATS. Rather than risk losing a lot of money if the 49ers cover ATS, you can use a layoff book to balance your action on the game.
The goal of a bookie is to guarantee a profit regardless of the result. Ideally, you’ll make close to the same amount of money regardless of the result. Remember, you’re a bookie and not a gambler.
As you can see, it’s definitely possible to ensure a profit on every single market. However, bookies aren’t going to spend time balancing every single market every single day.
It’s important to follow your daily betting reports closely to find out your exposure on events. When the exposure on one side of a bet is too high, you need to consider laying off some of the action.
Over the long run bookies are definitely expected to win. Bookies have an edge over their clients mathematically, but that doesn’t mean a bookie is always expected to win.
Smart bookies will rarely lose money, but it happens to everyone. You’re not always going to have a balanced book on every market and sometimes you’re going to lose. The more clients you have betting, the easier it is to balance your book and guarantee a profit.
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