2013 NHL Stanley Cup Playoff Eastern Conference Semifinals Picks: Ottawa Senators vs Pittsburgh Penguins Odds and Predictions

2013 NHL Stanley Cup Playoff Eastern Conference Semifinals Picks: Ottawa Senators vs Pittsburgh Penguins Odds and Predictions: The second round of the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs kicks off Tuesday with an Eastern Conference semifinals matchup between Ottawa and Pittsburgh. Since the NHL reseeds following each round, the top-seeded Penguins will meet the seventh-seeded Senators in a series that promises to have some bad blood. Pittsburgh beat Ottawa in all three meetings during the regular season, but that isn’t the only reason the Senators will be out for revenge. Penguins’ left wing Matt Cooke lacerated the Achilles tendon of Ottawa star Erik Karlsson on a play that was at the very least questionable given Cooke’s reputation. Many thought Karlsson would be out for the year, but the Senators top player returned just in time for the postseason, adding another element to a battle between the offensive-minded Penguins and the defensive-minded Senators.

Injuries threatened to derail Ottawa all year. In addition to losing Karlsson, the Senators were forced to play significant time without offensive weapons Jason Spezza and Milan Michalek along with goaltender Chris Anderson. With the exception of Spezza, the Senators are back at full strength of the playoffs, and the return of Karlsson and Anderson in particular allow Ottawa to play its defensive-minded style at a high level. After all, Anderson led the league in save percentage and goals against average in the regular season and was stout in the team’s first-round win over the Montreal Canadiens. Meanwhile, Karlsson is not only one of Ottawa’s most-talented offensive weapons, but he teams with fellow defenseman Sergei Gonchar to form one of the biggest blue line tandems in the NHL. The Senators offense can run hot and cold, but they allowed the second-fewest goals in the regular season and are one of the best defensive teams in the NHL.

It wasn’t exactly pretty for the Penguins in the first round, but they eventually put away the New York Islanders in six games thanks to their high-powered offense. After leading the NHL in scoring during the regular season, Pittsburgh has six players that averaged at least a point per game against the Islanders. Stars Evgeni Malkin, Jarome Iginla and Sidney Crosby led the way as each scored at least nine points in the team’s first-round series while defensemen Kris Letang and Paul Martin made sure Pittsburgh’s power play was firing on all cylinders. On the flip side, goaltending was a serious issue for the Penguins against New York. Starter Marc-Andre Fleury allowed 3.40 goals per game through the first four games before being benched in favor of Tomas Vokoun, who shut out the Islanders in his first start and allowed three goals in a Game 6 win. The Penguiins are an offensive juggernaut, but heading into the semifinals, Pittsburgh has a bit of a goalie controversy on its hands.

The Senators Win If:

Even though Ottawa exploded offensively in its first-round destruction of Montreal, the Senators need to focus on slowing down Pittsburgh offense rather than trying to keep up with it if they want to win this series. It starts with Anderson continuing to play excellent between the pipes, but Ottawa needs to play as physical as possible as a team in order to slow down and wear down Pittsburgh’s talented attackers. On the offensive end, avoiding turnovers and keeping the puck on Pittsburgh’s end of the ice as much as possible will be crucial. Getting quality shots of their own certainly won’t hurt, but if the Senators want to knock of the Penguins, limiting the scoring chances Pittsburgh has to be the top priority. If Ottawa can slow the pace and make sure the series is decided by goaltending and physical play, the Senators has the pieces in place to grind things out and advance.

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The Penguins Win If:

Obviously, Pittsburgh needs either Fleury or Vokoun to at least provide serviceable goaltending, but the Penguins aren’t built to win defensive battles even when their goalies are on top of their games. If the Penguins are going to win the series, they need to push the tempo with their offensive attack and keep the pressure on Anderson by keeping the puck in Ottawa’s end of the ice and getting as many shots as possible. With as much scoring power as the Penguins have, the last thing they want to do is let the Senators impose a grinding, physical style of play. After all, Ottawa’s offense is better now that most of its parts are healthy, but the Senators are still not an offensive juggernaut. If the Penguins force Ottawa to score a lot of goals to keep pace, their firepower will be to much for the Senators to handle.

Bottom Line:

While there is no denying that the Penguins have the most offensive firepower of any team in the playoffs, a now-healthy Ottawa team has the personnel to hold its own. Karlsson and Gonchar have the size to slow down Pittsburgh arsenal of scorers, and the Senators also have one of the best goaltenders in the game in Anderson to help contain the Penguins’ attack. Keep in mind that the Penguins struggled to put away an Islanders’ bunch with a weak defense and below average goaltender, and now, they have to deal with a physical, defensive-minded team with an excellent goalie. Yes, Vokoun performed better than Fleury in his two starts, but there is a reason Vokoun wasn’t the starter to begin with. Throw in the fact that the Senators will be more than happy to bounce the team that injured their star player earlier in the year on a questionable play, and they should have all the motivation they need to wear down the Penguins over the course of the series and pull off the upset.

Prediction: Ottawa Senators Win in 7 Games

Ottawa Senators vs Pittsburgh Penguins Series Price
Ottawa Senators +250
Pittsburgh Penguins -290

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