Week 7 Sunday Night NFL Picks: Indianapolis Colts @ New Orleans Saints Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 10/23/11

Week 7 Free NFL Picks: Indianapolis Colts @ New Orleans Saints Sunday Night NFL Week 7 Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on NBC 10/23/11: Although technically a rematch of Super Bowl XLIV, there won’t exactly be a championship atmosphere in the Superdome Sunday night when the Indianapolis Colts (0-6) visit the New Orleans Saints (4-2). Life without Peyton Manning under center has been hard for the Colts, and Indianapolis has gone from playoff contender into “Suck for Luck” mode seemingly overnight. Meanwhile, the Saints’ Super Bowl aspirations are still alive and well, and they are 14-point favorites in this matchup. Barring a total collapse, New Orleans should win. The question for bettors is whether or not Drew Brees and company will cover the rather large spread by NFL standards.

It’s only fitting to start with Brees when breaking down the matchup. Since Curtis Painter, and not Manning, is Bress’ counterpart, he will be by far the superior quarterback on the field. More importantly, Brees will be facing an Indianapolis secondary that is giving up more than 250 passing yards a game and allowing QBs to complete an NFL-best 69.9 percent of passes. Brees is second in the league in passing yards and has topped 350 yards in his last four games. With plenty of firepower at his disposal, he should have no trouble spreading out and picking apart the porous Colts’ pass defense.

To make matters worse for the Colts, their normally stout pass rush has been less than intimidating this season. Indianapolis has just nine sacks through six games, and Brees becomes even more dangerous when he has time to see the field. With receivers like Marques Colston and Robert Meachem spreading the field, tight end Jimmy Graham moving the chains over the middle, and running back Darren Sproles catching passes out of the backfield, Brees and the Saints’ passing attack are often too much for any defense to handle. For a mediocre Indianapolis unit, the task could prove impossible.

On the bright side, the Colts’ offense has shown signs of life since Painter replaced veteran Kerry Collins as starting quarterback. Receiver Pierre Garcon has emerged as a big play option in the passing game, while fellow receiver Reggie Wayne and tight end Dallas Clark have been moving the chains. Meanwhile, the New Orleans’ secondary has been vulnerable this year, giving up a league-high 12 touchdown passes and more than 275 yards. Granted, the Saints have spent a lot of time in the lead, forcing teams to throw to try and come from behind. However, their pass defense is mediocre at best. If Painter and the Colts can hit some big plays in the passing game, Indianapolis could make things interesting and maybe cover the spread.

Another factor that can’t be overlooked is the fact that the Saints are playing at home. New Orleans has had just two home games all season and has spent the last three weekends on the road. Meanwhile, the Saints are 2-0 in the Superdome and are averaging 35 points a game. The Saints’ high-powered passing attack always seems to function on all cylinders on the fast turf without the elements to slow down Brees. Not mention the fact that the New Orleans fans can be as loud as any in the NFL.

If this game was at Indianapolis, the Colts might be able to hang close to the Saints. However, the Superdome crowd is going to be in rare form for the first Saints’ home game in about a month. Brees should continue his stellar play and have a monster night against a below average Colts’ defense. Painter won’t be able to keep up with Brees over the course of four quarters, and the New Orleans offense should turn this one into a runaway in the second half.

Prediction: New Orleans Saints (-14) Cover the Spread

Free NFL Football Picks and Predictions: New Orleans -14

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