Week 5 Sunday Night NFL Picks: Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 10/9/11

Week 5 Free NFL Picks: Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons Sunday Night NFL Week 5 Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on NBC 10/9/11: Last season, the Atlanta rolled to the best record in the NFC, only to be bounced from the playoffs by the Green Bay. This year, the Packers (4-0) appear to be headed to the top record in the conference, while the Falcons (2-2) are trying to build some momentum just to make a return trip to the postseason. The two franchises will meet again Sunday night when Green Bay visits Atlanta in a showdown between two of the top offenses in the NFL. The defending Super Bowl champs are 5 ½-point favorites in this matchup.

If the Falcons are going to avenge their 48-21 playoff loss, they have to find a way to slow down Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers. He torched Atlanta for more than 350 yards during the playoff matchup, and considering he is coming off a six-touchdown performance last weekend, Rodgers may be even better this time around. He has 12 touchdowns to just two interceptions in 2011 and is completing more than 70 percent of his passes. With those types of numbers, it is no surprise that the Packers bring the top-scoring offense into Sunday’s meeting.

Atlanta has a strong offense in its own right. Quarterback Matt Ryan continues to get better, and receivers Roddy White and rookie Julio Jones are quickly becoming a dynamic duo. Meanwhile, tight end Tony Gonzalez has recaptured his magic in the red zone, and running back Michael Turner is still as good as any back down around the goal line. Overall, the Falcons’ offense may be even more balanced than the Packers’ unit, and as long as Atlanta is on the field moving the ball, Rodgers and company will be on the sidelines.

On the defense side of the ball, both teams have similar strengths and weaknesses. The Packers and Falcons can rush the passer as good as any teams in the NFL, but even by pressuring opposing QBs, the secondaries for both have been exposed. Green Bay has already allowed Drew Brees and rookie Cam Newton to top 300 yards through the air, while Atlanta allowed Tavaris Jackson to carve them up last weekend. Ryan and Rodgers could both be in for big days, and a shootout could be in the works Sunday night.

Turner is a possible X-factor in the matchup. If he can slow the game down and move the ball consistently on the ground, the Falcons may be able to run out the clock in the fourth quarter. Of course that winning scenario requires Atlanta to be ahead in the closing minutes, and that is no guarantee.  Not to mention the fact that the Packers rank in the top 10 in terms of stopping the run this season.

With both quarterbacks likely to find plenty of open targets, the game could come down to which team can make a key stop on defense. Green Bay cornerback Charles Woodson is the top playmaker on the defensive side of the ball for either side, and overall, the Packers have more players that consistently make standout plays. In a game that could easily become a back-and-forth affair, one or two turnovers could make the difference.

In the end, the powerful passing attack of the Packers will likely be too much for the porous Atlanta secondary to handle. Granted, Ryan and the Falcons should pile up some yardage through the air as well, but Atlanta has already shown this season that it struggles when Turner and the ground game aren’t involved. The pressure to keep pace with Rodgers and the Green Bay offense will likely cause the Falcons to air it out, and if Drew Brees and the Saints receivers can’t keep up with the Packers’ offense, Atlanta’s chances are even slimmer. A blowout seems unlikely, but Green Bay should cover the spread.

Prediction: Green Bay Packers (-5 ½) Cover the Spread

Free NFL Football Picks and Predictions: Green Bay -5.5

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