Week 3 Sunday Night NFL Picks: Steelers @ Colts Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 9/25

Week 3 Free NFL Picks: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Indianapolis Colts Sunday Night NFL Week 3 Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on NBC 9/25/11: When the Steelers and Colts get together, it is normally a potential preview of an AFC Championship Game. However, the anticipation that normally comes with a matchup between these two conference powerhouses has been tempered for Sunday’s meeting because of an injury to Indianapolis quarterback Peyton Manning. The Colts have looked terrible, limping to an 0-2 start, and while the Steelers are only 1-1 themselves, this game has potential blowout written all over it with Pittsburgh favored by 10 ½ points.

Veteran Kerry Collins has done his best to replace Manning, but learning the complex Indianapolis offense has been a slow process, and even in his prime, Collins wasn’t near the QB that Manning is. Throw in a struggling running, and it is easy to understand why the Colts’ offense has sputtered in losses to the Texans and Browns. While Collins may improve as the year progresses, the chances of the Colts approaching the numbers they are used to with Manning running the show are slim.

Playing the Steelers won’t help matters. James Harrison and Lamar Woodley lead a physical defense that attack opposing quarterbacks as well as any team in the NFL. Collins is a pure pocket passer with little mobility in the pocket. Pittsburgh’s blitzing defense is going to know where to find him and will likely put him on his back several times Sunday night. With the offense already struggling, Collins could implode in the face of the Steelers pass rush.

To make matters worse, the Colts defense is young and still learning the system. Pittsburgh running back Rashard Mendenhall should find the Indianapolis defensive line easy to wear down and come on strong as the game progresses just as Peyton Hillis did last weekend for Cleveland. When Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger drops back to pass, he will be facing a Colts’ secondary that is already talking about lineup changes after struggles the first two weeks. With multiple deep threats on the outside, including Mike Wallace, the Steelers should be able to contact on some big plays in the passing game as well.

The one area where Indianapolis could have an edge is putting pressure on Roethlisberger. The Steelers struggled to protect their QB during a seven-turnover debacle in a blowout loss to Baltimore in Week 1. Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis can get after the quarterback as good as any duo in the NFL, and if they can force some turnovers, the Colts may just be able to take advantage of some shorter fields to put points on the board.

In the end, the Steelers are going to have to make a lot of mistakes on both sides of the ball if the Colts are going to spring the upset. An already struggling Indianapolis offense will be hard pressed to score at all against the Steelers defense, and Mendenhall should be able to establish a ground game for the Pittsburgh offense and open up some big play opportunities with the play-action pass. The first two weeks of the season have shown that without Manning, the Colts are one of the worst teams in the NFL. That isn’t going to change when the most dominant franchise in the AFC comes to town Sunday night.

Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers (-10 ½) Cover the Spread

Free NFL Football Picks and Predictions: Pittsburgh -10.5

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