Week 3 NFL Picks on FOX: Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears Odds and Predictions – Sunday Free NFL Picks 9/25

Week 3 Free NFL Picks: Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears NFL Week 3 Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on FOX 9/25/11: Last season, NFC North rivals Chicago (1-1) and Green Bay (2-0) met at Soldier Field for the chance to go to the Super Bowl. The Packers ultimately won the game, captured the conference crown, and went on to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. The Bears won’t be able to make up for the opportunity they lost last season, but this Sunday, they do have a chance to prove to the defending champs that they will be a force to be reckoned with once again in 2011-12. Meanwhile, the Packers would love to show the Bears that they are still the team to beat. Although it’s still early in the season, the winner of this meeting will be in the driver’s seat to win the division.

In last season’s conference championship game, the Packers knocked out Chicago quarterback Jay Cutler. Cutler has been getting knocked around again this season to the tune of 11 sacks in just two games. With Clay Matthews leading a Green Bay pass rush that has the fourth-most sacks in the NFL so far this season, Cutler could end up spending a lot of time on his back again this weekend. The New Orleans Saints were able to parlay six sacks into an easy 30-13 win over the Bears last weekend, and the Packers have the personnel to execute a similar strategy Sunday.

Although the Packers have put plenty of heat on opposing QBs, their secondary has been vulnerable this year. Drew Brees shredded Green Bay through the air, and even rookie Cam Newton topped 400 yards through the air last weekend. Cutler has had his share of impressive passing performances, but he doesn’t exactly have a lot of weapons to work with in Chicago. Johnny Knox is his most reliable receiver, but Devin Hester is still learning the position, and Roy Williams and Earl Bennett are dealing with injuries. Without a serious deep threat and facing a heavy pass rush, Cutler could struggle. Not to mention the fact that he has thrown almost as many interceptions as touchdowns since arriving in Chicago.

Meanwhile, Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers has been nearly perfect this season. He is completing more than 70 percent of his passes, and he has yet to throw an interception. Last weekend, Brees shredded the Chicago secondary, and Rodgers has just as many weapons at his disposal. Receiver Greg Jennings has been particularly effective against Chicago, piling up more than 400 yards in the last five meetings between the teams. For the record, the Packers are 4-1 during the stretch.

If the Saints are the barometer, Chicago could be in trouble. The Packers defeated New Orleans in a shootout in the season opener, but the Bears were never really in contention during their loss to the Saints last weekend.  Granted, performance against a common opponent doesn’t count for anything this weekend, but it certainly has to be considered a positive sign for the Packers.

In the end, Green Bay’s pass-heavy offense will likely overwhelm the Chicago defense, while the Packers’ pass rush will have a golden opportunity to disrupt Cutler. Rodgers and company have owned the Bears the last few years, and after last year’s playoff win at Chicago, any element of intimidation is going to be gone. With the core members of both teams back in place again this year, history says the final outcome will likely favor Green Bay.

Prediction: Green Bay Packers (-4) Cover the Spread

Free NFL Football Picks and Predictions: Green Bay -4

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