Week 15 Sunday Night NFL Picks: Baltimore Ravens @ San Diego Chargers Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 12/18/11

Week 15 Free NFL Picks: Baltimore Ravens @ San Diego Chargers NFL Week 15 Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on NBC 12/18/11: Just when it looks like the San Diego Chargers’ playoff hopes are dead, December rolls around and Norv Turner’s bunch remembers how to play football. A pair of blowout wins the last two weeks has San Diego at 6-7 and clinging to life in the AFC West. Meanwhile, the Baltimore Ravens have won four in a row and sit atop the AFC North with a 10-3 record. Baltimore needs to win to keep their hopes of a division title alive, and San Diego needs to win or the postseason is out of the question. In a game that both teams need to win, the Ravens are 2 ½-point favorites.

For the Chargers, the turnaround can be linked directly to the play of quarterback Philip Rivers. He has been plagued by turnovers all season, and during the first 11 games of the season, he threw 17 interceptions and lost seven fumbles. However, he has been a different player the last two games, throwing a combined six touchdowns and no interceptions. If he continues to limit the turnovers, the Chargers should be able to compete against any team, and that includes the Ravens Sunday night.

Of course, avoiding turnovers is easier said than done against the Baltimore defense. The unit ranks fourth against the pass and second against the run, and they have been putting up the outstanding numbers without the help of star linebacker Ray Lewis. The Ravens have been relentless when it comes to rushing the passer, piling up 45 sacks. Linebacker Terrell Suggs has done a bulk of the damage with 13 sacks, and defensive tackle Haloti Ngata has chipped in with five. If Baltimore can put pressure on Philips, the turnovers could start piling up again.

Offensively, Baltimore has a balanced attack. Quarterback Joe Flacco has thrown for more than 3,000 yards, and running back Ray Rice has already topped 1,000 yards. The offense has been at its best when Rice has been the center of the attack, but unlike in past years, Flacco has been able to keep opposing defenses honest when they stack the box. That being said, Rice has a good chance to excel this weekend against a San Diego defense that ranks outside the top 20 against the rush.

For the Chargers, the X-factor could be tight end Antonio Gates. He has been hampered by injuries all season, but he has been rounding into form recently. Gates is always a red zone threat, but he could also be the outlet option Rivers needs to avoid the fierce Baltimore pass rush. Meanwhile, the Ravens’ game changer could be wide receiver Torrey Smith. The rookie has six touchdowns this season and has been the big-play threat Baltimore has lacked in recent years. Smith is averaging more than 18 yards per catch, and if Rice can control the game on the ground, Flacco could find Smith for some big gains on play action.

At the end of the day, Baltimore’s balance on both sides of the ball should allow the Ravens to control the game. Granted, the Chargers have been playing better the last two weeks, but they have been beating up on a lesser competition. San Diego will find scoring much more difficult against the Ravens defense, and the Chargers’ defense will find stopping the Baltimore offense a challenge as well. San Diego is still the team that lost six straight games in the middle of the season, and the Ravens will expose their weaknesses and get it done on the road.

Prediction: Baltimore Ravens (-2 ½) Cover the Spread

Free NFL Football Picks and Predictions: Baltimore -2.5

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