Week 15 NFL Picks: Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 12/18/11

Week 15 Free NFL Picks: New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos NFL Week 15 Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on CBS 12/18/11: There are unforgettable hot streaks, and then there is magical ride that Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos have been on the last two months. Since taking over as starter, Tebow and the Broncos have gone 7-1, vaulting to the top of the AFC West standings with an 8-5 record. Tebow has engineered six fourth-quarter comebacks along the way, but Denver will face a serious challenge this Sunday when the Broncos travel to Foxboro to play the 10-3 New England Patriots. Despite Tebow’s late-game heroics, the Broncos are 7 ½-point underdogs in this matchup.

Of course, the Patriots have been on a nice streak of their own, winning five straight. New England hasn’t needed any last minute comebacks to get the job done either, scoring at least 31 points in all five victories. Not surprisingly, quarterback Tom Brady has been leading the way, and the defending NFL MVP is on pace to break Dan Marino’s single-season record for passing yards. The Patriots are second in the league in terms of pass yards per game this season, and while the Denver defense has been much improved of late, the unit still ranks in the middle of the pack when it comes to defending the pass. If Brady has another big game, the Broncos could be in for a long afternoon.

While the Patriots will look to throw the ball early and often and build a lead, Denver will try to do the exact opposite. The Broncos lead the NFL with more than 150 rushing yards per game, and if they control the clock Sunday, it means Brady and the Patriots’ offense will be on the sideline. Tebow has been a big part of the rushing success, but starting running back Willis McGahee deserves credit as well. The resurgent veteran is closing on 1,000 yards and is averaging a respectable 4.6 yards per carry. Tebow may be getting the headlines, but New England will need to control McGahee as well in order to keep the Denver offense from eating up the clock.

Considering the play of the New England offense lately, there is a good chance Brady and company will be putting plenty of points on the board. However, being forced to abandon its power running game in order to catch up may not be a bad thing for Denver. After all, New England has the worst defense in the league when it comes to defending the pass, and while Tebow is not a polished passer, he does have a knack for connecting on some big plays. With receivers Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas stretching the field, a shootout doesn’t necessarily mean game over for Denver.

The X-factor in the game could be New England tight end Rob Gronkowski. He has already topped 1,000 yards this year, and his 15 touchdowns are an NFL record for a tight end. Denver corner Champ Bailey will have to go up against New England’s Wes Welker in order to try to contain the league’s leading receiver, which should mean some favorable matchups for Gronkowski. If he continues to make big grabs in the red zone and big plays down the field, the Patriots will likely continue to pile up plenty of points.

In the end, New England has enough firepower to jump out to an early lead, even against a Denver defense that has been excellent. With Tebow and company likely being forced to take to the air quicker than normal, there is a good chance Denver could turn the ball over more than normal as well. That being said, the porous Patriots’ secondary should continue to struggle, allowing the Broncos to put some points on the board. The hole will likely be too deep even for Tebow to dig out of, but Denver can still cover the spread with some fourth quarter scoring.

Prediction: Denver Broncos (+7 ½) Cover the Spread

Free NFL Football Picks and Predictions: Denver +7.5

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