Week 10 NFL Picks: New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 11/13/11

Week 10 Free NFL Picks: New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers NFL Week 10 Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on FOX 11/13/11: The New York Giants (6-2) and the San Francisco 49ers (7-1) have a few things in common heading into Sunday’s meeting. Neither team was expected to win its division, but both franchises are in the driver’s seat when it comes to making the playoffs. In fact, Sunday’s game could be more about securing home field advantage in the NFC than anything else. At the very least, the matchup should be a good barometer to judge where each team stands. As the road team, the Giants are 3 1/2-point underdogs.

Ironically, both teams are matchup nightmares for one another. New York defends the pass well, but the 49ers don’t throw the ball often. Meanwhile, the Giants rarely run the ball, and San Francisco has the top-rated rush defense. Instead, the powerful New York passing game will get to go against a weak 49ers secondary, and the porous rush defense of the Giants will have to try to contain the power running game of Frank Gore and San Francisco.

Whichever defense can hide its weakness the best is going to gain a substantial edge. Given the questionable history of San Francisco QB Alex Smith, the Giants probably have the better chance at controlling things defensively. New York has one of the best pass rushes in the NFL, and the Giants are able to pressure opposing quarterbacks with their defensive line alone. As a result, New York should be able to stack the box and dare Smith and his questionable receivers to beat its solid secondary. Smith has played above expectations thus far, but if the Giants can pressure him, there is a good chance that the old, turnover prone Smith will make an appearance.

Of course, Eli Manning doesn’t exactly have the best reputation under center either. Like Smith, Manning has been enjoying a career year, and the ups and downs that have plagued him in the past have been replaced by consistency and solid play. More than anything, the Giants surprising start is a reflection of Manning. Heck, he is coming off a game-winning, fourth quarter drive against Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. Manning’s confidence is at an all-time high, and that could be bad news for a below average San Francisco secondary.

The X-factor for the 49ers could be kick returner Ted Ginn Jr. San Francisco has been winning with field position and a power running game all year, and Ginn Jr. has helped the cause by setting up his team in opponents’ territory and even taking multiple kicks back for scores. If he can shorten the field on a consistent basis, Smith’s job becomes a lot easier, and the San Francisco offense becomes a lot more effective.

At the end of the day, Manning should be the difference for New York. When he is playing at his current level, the Giants have an explosive offense, and he is head and shoulders above Smith in terms of ability. Gore should have a big day, but he is dealing with too many nagging injuries to beat the Giants by himself. Considering Manning just outdueled Brady last weekend in Foxboro, he should be able to do the same to Smith, especially when New York is getting points.

Prediction: New York Giants (+ 3 ½) Win the Game

Free NFL Football Picks and Predictions: NY Giants +3.5

Stop by NSAwins.com daily throughout the NFL Football season for daily Free NFL Picks and Vegas NFL Lines plus daily updated Super Bowl 2012 Futures Odds.