ESPN Monday Night NFL Picks: Miami Dolphins @ NY Jets Odds and Predictions Week 6 – Free NFL Picks 10/17/11

Monday Night NFL Picks: Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets Monday Night NFL Week 6 Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on ESPN 10/17/11: The AFC East was supposed to be one of the toughest divisions in the NFL this year, and with the surprise emergence of the Buffalo Bills, it has more than lived up to the hype. However, the same cannot be said for the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets. After floundering around .500 last year, Miami could end up with the league’s worst record. Meanwhile, the Jets had Super Bowl dreams are already in jeopardy as the team has looked like anything but the franchise that had made back-to-back NFC Championship game. In a matchup that has become less than marquee, New York is a seven-point favorite.

Offense has been a major issue for both teams this year, albeit for different reasons. The Dolphins have been dealt a number of injuries, including losing starting quarterback Chad Henne for the season. Henne opened the year with a 400-yard performance and appeared to be progressing to a legitimate NFL starter, but his injury has left the unproven Matt Moore under center. The ground game has been affected as well, as rookie running back Daniel Thomas has been less than 100 percent from the start of the season. The end result has been an inefficient and sometimes absent offense.

Meanwhile, the Jets offense has struggled to find a rhythm behind a shaky offensive line. The team’s strength the last few seasons has been the power run game, and New York has struggled to put up points as a pass-first team led by QB Mark Sanchez. The good news for the Jets is that center Nick Mangold returns from injury for Monday’s game, and his presence could revitalize the rest of the line. After all, this is the same unit that has been one of the best in the NFL the last few years. If running back Shonn Greene can become the center of the offense and allow Sanchez to use play-action as a secondary weapon, the Jets chances of winning increase dramatically.

For Miami, shutting down the Jets’ ground game and establishing a running game of their own will be the key to pulling an upset. The health of Thomas will play a major role, and while he is expected to see some snaps, the Dolphins have already shown that they can’t move the ball on the ground effectively with Reggie Bush as the feature back. Even against a New York front seven that has been gashed repeatedly by opposing running backs, the Dolphins just don’t have the personnel to take advantage of the situation.

Another matchup to watch within the game is Miami receiver Brandon Marshall against New York cornerback Darrelle Revis. Marshall is one of the best possession receivers in the game, and Revis may be the top cover corner. Marshall has done plenty of trash talking leading up to the game, but Revis could get the last laugh. Marshall doesn’t exactly have a great QB trying to get him the ball, and if Revis shuts down Marshall, what little passing attack the Dolphins have at the moment will be virtually non-existent.

Neither team is on top of its game entering this matchup, but even in their current state of disarray, the Jets still have a big advantage. Without Henne, the Dolphins don’t have a QB that can stretch the field and take advantage of Marshall’s talent, and unless Thomas suddenly gets fully healthy, Miami’s ground game will likely continue to sputter behind Bush. Meanwhile, Green and the New York ground game are heading in the right direction and the struggling Jets’ defense should gain some confidence against the inept Miami offense. New York should have no trouble winning covering the spread in this one.

Prediction: New York Jets (-7) Cover the Spread

Free NFL Football Picks and Predictions: New York Jets -7

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