ESPN Monday Night NFL Picks: Indianapolis Colts @ Tampa Bay Bucs Odds and Predictions Week 4 – Free NFL Picks 10/3

Monday Night NFL Picks: Indianapolis Colts @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Monday Night NFL Week 4 Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on ESPN 10/3/11: It is no secret that the Indianapolis Colts (0-3) have struggled without Peyton Manning running the show on offense. Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) are picking up where they left off last year when they won 10 games and nearly made the playoffs. The Buccaneers have an excellent opportunity to move one step closer to the postseason when the host the struggling Colts on Monday night. However, Tampa Bay has a nasty habit of playing in tight games almost every week, and with Indianapolis getting 10 ½ points, bettors have a tough choice to make.

A look at the Buccaneers’ first three games tells the tale. They opened the year with a seven-point loss at home to the Detroit Lions, and followed with a four-point win one the road against the Minnesota Vikings and a three-point win at home against the Atlanta Falcons. Considering the Vikings and Falcons managed a combined one win in the first three weeks of the season, Tampa Bay hasn’t shown the ability to blowout opponents by any means.

Looking at the Buccaneers’ overall numbers, it is easy to understand why. Offensively, Tampa Bay ranks just 21st in terms of passing yards per game, and only 20th in rushing yards. On the defensive side of the ball, the Buccaneers rank 23rd against both the run and the pass this year. While Tampa Bay has been getting it done in terms of wins and losses, the Bucs haven’t been showing enough muscle on either side of the ball to make bettors feel comfortable with such a large spread.

Tampa Bay quarterback Josh Freeman shoulders much of the blame for the lack of offensive production. He is becoming notorious for slow starts and famous for his fourth-quarter heroics. Freeman has a strong arm that is more than capable of stretching the field, and he can make plays with his legs, too. When he is on top of his game, receiver Mike Williams becomes a legitimate deep threat and running back LeGarrette Blount actually has room to work. However, the entire offense becomes stagnant when Freeman struggles.

The Indianapolis offense has been a train wreck as well, only there have been no late-game heroics to save the day. As a result, veteran Kerry Collins will be replaced by Curtis Painter under center Monday night. While Painter is completely unproven, he can’t really make the offense any worse. Meanwhile, the Indianapolis defense has played at a high level this season, including an impressive performance in a near win against the Pittsburgh Steelers last weekend. Defensive end Dwight Freeney has been at the top of his game, and if he can force a few turnovers from Freeman, the Colts may just be able to put some points on the board.

On paper, the Buccaneers are the far superior team. Barring a rash of turnovers on the part of Freeman and the offense, Tampa Bay should come out on top at home against a Colts’ team that could end up with the top pick in next year’s draft. That being said, the Buccaneers never seem in sync to start a game, and they never seem to be able to knockout an opponent when they have them on the ropes. The point spread in this matchup is just too much for comfort for a Tampa Bay team that makes a living on coming from behind and winning close games. Bettors should strongly consider taking the Colts and the points in this one.

Prediction: Indianapolis Colts (+10 ½) Cover the Spread

Free NFL Football Picks and Predictions: Indianapolis Colts +10.5

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