Denver Broncos at New England Patriots Pick and Prediction
In years past, a game between the New England Patriots and the Denver Broncos carried Super Bowl implications. But it’s a strange season, one with postponed games and teams playing in mostly empty stadiums. It shouldn’t be a big surprise that the Patriots find themselves with a worse record than the Cleveland Browns.
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After acquiring quarterback Cam Newton to replace long-time signal-caller Tom Brady, things looked good for New England. But Newton was out Monday night against Kansas City after testing positive for COVID-19. The Patriots’ backup plan of Brian Hoyer and Jarrett Stidham proved ineffective in a 26-10 loss to the Chiefs.
For Patriots head coach Bill Belichick, a 2-2 record after the first quarter of the season is hardly cause for alarm. But where do we go with our free pick? They’ve been in this position in the past 20 years, but there was always Brady to right the ship. The last time I checked, Brady was 1,300 miles south, leading Tampa Bay to a 3-1 record and the NFC South lead.
The Denver Broncos finally broke into the win column, but it took playing the winless Jets to get there. Their opening schedule was brutal, with three games against teams with a collective 9-1 record through four weeks. Denver has also been without quarterback Drew Lock, who has been out with a shoulder injury suffered in Week 2.
Betting Lines
New England is favored by 11 at top online sportsbooks, with both teams carrying a payout of -110 against the spread. The moneyline on Denver is +425, and on New England, it’s -550. The over/under is 47.5, with both ends paying -110.
Despite their losing record, the Broncos are 3-1 against the spread. Their games have paid on the over once, the under twice, and for one game, it was a push. The Patriots are 2-2 against the spread, also even against the over/under.
Game Preview
Both quarterbacks have a chance to play, but neither one has practiced with their team this week. Don’t take our word for it in this betting preview. It’s your job to watch the news this week.
Newton has the best opportunity because he’s asymptomatic, and two negative tests get him back on the field. Broncos coach Vic Fangio has said Lock is “50-50” to play against the Patriots, but it’s unlikely without practicing.
Before Week 4’s 37-point outburst against the Jets, the Broncos had been averaging just 15 points. Defensively, New England has played solidly except for giving up 35 points at Seattle in Week 2. Through the first three weeks, the Patriots were averaging 29 points a game.
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Having Newton back at quarterback makes a big difference in the outcome of this game for New England. Hoyer looked tentative, but that was against a strong Chiefs defense. Stidham came on late and rallied the Patriots for a touchdown, but it wasn’t enough.
The best course of action for this one would be to wait until close to game time to bet. If Newton plays and Lock doesn’t, the line will probably look a lot like 10 or 11 for the Patriots. If Newton is out, the line is likely to shrink, whether Lock is healthy enough or not.
The Patriots should win, and given the high scoring in the league so far in 2020, the over is a good bet. The health of Newton will determine where the line ends up and what a good bet will be.