2019 NFL Picks & Predictions: Rushing Title Favorites, Value Bets & Sleepers: Minicamps are in the books and we are just a couple of weeks away from the start of NFL training camps. Rosters still have to be finalized and position battles sorted out, but for the top players in the league, the preseason process is merely a tune-up session for the games that really matter.
In recent years, offenses have been trending more towards the passing game, but there are still some running backs left who are legitimate difference-makers. For the best backs in the NFL, one of the top individual accomplishments is winning the rushing title, the best time to bet on the eventual winner is right now, especially if you like to bet on players getting longer odds.
With that in mind, check out a closer look at my top contenders for the 2019 NFL rushing title and my favorite longshots and value bets.
2019 NFL Picks & Predictions: Rushing Title Favorites, Value Bets & Sleepers
The Favorites
Ezekiel Elliott (+300)
If you like backing favorites, Elliott is the easy play here. He has won the rushing title in two of his first three seasons, and even in 2017 when he was suspended six games, his 98.3 rushing yards per game were 11.3 more than any other back. He is the centerpiece of the Dallas offense and a proven workhorse, and between his high volume and per-carry production, another 1,500-plus yards and a third rushing title seem likely.
Saquon Barkley (+400)
Barkley finished second in the league as a rookie last year, averaging 5.0 yards per carry and piling 1,307 yards. His will be the focal point of the offense for the Giants again in 2019, so he’s going to get enough touches to be in the mix. The overall success of the team could result in Barkley seeing more looks in the passing game than some of the other top backs, but his explosiveness should help offset that. He led the NFL with 16 rushes of 20-plus yards last year, and his big-play ability could put him over the top in the race of the rushing title.
Value Bets
Joe Mixon (+1300)
Mixon emerged as a workhorse for the Bengals last year, and he ended up leading the AFC with 1,168 yards in just 14 games. His heavy workload (237 carries) certainly helped, but Mixon was also efficient, averaging 4.9 yards per carry. After being riddled with injuries last year, the Bengals offense looks a lot more formidable heading into 2019. More balance and more weapons should mean more running room for Mixon. He is one of the safest bets to finish among the league leaders in carries, and he looks poised for a breakout year. If you are dropping down from the favorites, Mixon is an appealing alternative.
Le’Veon Bell (+1600)
It has been a tumultuous couple of years for Bell, but after taking a year off, he resurfaces in New York as the unquestioned lead back. He has always been extremely productive when on the field, and the Jets aren’t paying him all this money to limit his workload. There is a chance the Jets could struggle and limit Bell’s impact as a runner, but this is probably your best chance to get a back of Bell’s quality at these odds. As soon as he takes the field and reminds everyone of how great he is, I expect his odds to shrink.
Derrick Henry (+2300)
After disappointing in the lead role last year, Henry finally took off last season. He topped 80 yards in each of the final four games, running for at least 170 yards twice. Henry ended up seventh in the league in rushing with 1,059 yards, averaging 4.9 yards per carry. Tennessee added more weapons on offense this offseason to help Marcus Mariota, and if the passing game can show some life, it will only help Henry. He is an absolute bulldozer, and if the Titans can jump out front more often, he is going to be able to pound defenses into submission. Henry is a great value at +2300.
Sleeper Special
Josh Jacobs (+5000)
The Raiders didn’t take Jacobs early in the draft to put him in a committee with some veteran backs. Head coach Jon Gruden isn’t shy about riding his rookie backs, and back in 2005, Cadillac Williams carried the ball 290 times as a rookie for Gruden. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Jacobs see a similar workload, which would likely put him near the top five in the league in carries. Granted, it remains to be seen if Jacobs’ skills translate as well as expected, but at least you know he will have the high volume needed to contend for a rushing title. At +5000, he at least gives you a puncher’s chance.
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