2019 NFL MVP Odds & Predictions – Favorites & Bad Bets to Win NFL AP MVP: Training camps are starting to open up across the country, which means the 2019 NFL season is just around the corner. While every team starts the year with dreams of making a Super Bowl run, the top individual honor up for grabs in the Most Valuable Player Award.
I’ll start my preseason NFL coverage with a look at the best and worst bets among this year’s frontrunners for the award, and if we are talking MVP favorites, the conversation needs to start under center. Since 2001, quarterbacks have claimed the MVP honors in 15 of the 18 seasons. Let’s check out the top candidates.
2019 NFL MVP Odds & Predictions: Favorites & Bad Bets to Win NFL AP MVP
The Favorites
Andrew Luck (+650)
Fully healthy after a major shoulder injury, Luck reminded everyone of just how special he can be while claiming Comeback Player of the Year honors. His 4,593 passing yards and 39 touchdowns were both the second most of his career, and he set career highs with a 98.7 quarterback rating and a 67.3 completion percentage. Luck was also sacked just 18 times in 16 games, and head coach Frank Reich’s offense looks like it will bring out the best in Luck while also keeping him upright. Look for the Colts to establish themselves as one of the top teams in the NFL, and Luck could end up leading the league in most of the important passing stats. If both scenarios play out, it is going to be tough to keep Luck from winning MVP honors.
Drew Brees (+1000)
With 18 years under his belt, you may be thinking an MVP is just not meant to be for this future Hall of Famer. However, he did just lead the NFL with a 74.4 completion percentage, setting the single-season record in the process. He also led the league in quarterback rating, fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drivers while tossing 32 touchdowns and just five interceptions. The Saints figure to be a serious title contender, and if Brees has another ridiculously efficient year, I suspect a lifetime achievement sentiment will sway voters in his favor.
Carson Wentz (+1500)
Yes, there are injury concerns with Wentz, but at +1500, there is enough room for profit to make it worth the risk. After all, he was cruising to MVP honors in 2017 before his knee injury, and he was actually better in several categories last year than he was in his 2017 season. Wentz completed a career-high 69.6 percent of his passes last season, and his QB rating of 102.2 was also a career best. The Eagles have a loaded receiving corps, so there is no reason to expect his numbers to decline. If Wentz stays healthy for the entire season, he’s an MVP frontrunner and the Eagles are serious Super Bowl contenders.
Big Names to Avoid
Patrick Mahomes (+450)
Don’t get me wrong. I think the defending MVP is going to have another spectacular year and put up big numbers in Andy Reid’s high-octane attack. However, great players are often a victim of their own success, and after setting the bar so high in 2018, anything less is going to seem like a step back for Mahomes. Guys just don’t throw 50 touchdowns every year, and voter fatigue is a real thing. With Mahomes offering the smallest profit margin of any of the options, I just don’t think there is great value here.
Aaron Rodgers (+900)
While I think Wentz is worth the injury risk at his current odds, I think Rodgers in on the opposite end of the spectrum. Yes, he threw 25 touchdowns and just two interceptions last year, but he also posted the worst QBR of his career. Nagging injuries have become routine, and the weapons around him really haven’t improved. Yes, a new head coach could jumpstart the offense, but it is also another unknown. Rodgers is still an elite talent, but I don’t see enough upside at these odds.
2019-2020 NFL MVP Odds
Patrick Mahomes +450
Andrew Luck +650
Aaron Rodgers +900
Drew Brees +1000
Baker Mayfield +1100
Tom Brady +1400
Carson Wentz +1500
Philip Rivers +2000
Russell Wilson +2000
Mitchell Trubisky +2000
Matt Ryan +2500
Deshaun Watson +3300
Jimmy Garoppolo +3300
Jared Goff +4000
Cam Newton +4000
Ben Roethlisberger +4000
Aaron Donald +4000
Alvin Kamara +4500
Dak Prescott +5000
Christian McCaffrey +5000
Ezekiel Elliot +5000
Lamar Jackson +5000
Le’Veon Bell +5000
Khalil Mack +5000
Saquon Barkley +5000
Todd Gurley +5000
Kyler Murray +6600
Nick Foles +6600
David Johnson +6600
Josh Allen +7000
Sam Darnold +7500
Odell Beckham Jr +8000
Michael Thomas +8000
Kirk Cousins +8000
Julio Jones +8000
Joey Bosa +8000
JJ Watt +10000
Jameis Winston +10000
Antonio Brown +10000
Juju Smith-Schuster +10000
Matthew Stafford +10000
Tyreek Hill +10000
Leonard Fournette +15000
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