2019 NFL AP MVP Odds & Predictions – MVP Value Bets & Sleepers: With the preseason officially underway following the Hall of Fame Game, and if you like betting on the NFL, now is the time to start locking in your futures picks. The top individual prize up for grabs is the Most Valuable Player Award, and while I have already covered the favorites, everybody loves a good longshot.
Just last year we saw Patrick Mahomes explode in his first season as a starter to claim the award, and Carson Wentz was on a similar path a couple of years ago before a knee injury late in the year. Even when betting on MVP sleepers, you are still going to want to stick mainly to quarterbacks. Throw in a flier on a running or two, but even then, it is going to take a historic year. If you go with a player from any other position, you are wasting your money.
2019 NFL AP MVP Odds & Predictions: MVP Value Bets & Sleepers
Value Bets
Philip Rivers, QB, Los Angeles Chargers (+2000)
Sure, he has a bit of a gunslinger’s mentality, but Rivers rolls out of throwing for 4,000-plus yards and 30-plus touchdowns, and he is coming off a year when he tied the best quarterback rating of his career. More importantly, the Chargers are loaded as a team, and they are a serious threat to make a Super Bowl run. Stats are great, but when stats are combined with team success, you have the recipe for an MVP push. Don’t underestimate the sentimental side of voters either. If Rivers is in the MVP discussion, there will be a lifetime achievement element brought into the voting process.
Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks (+2500)
Wilson’s value can’t be questioned, and he has kept the Seahawks relevant in recent years despite a horrible offensive line and an eroding defense. Now, Seattle is starting to put some solid pieces around him again, and it showed last year as he tossed a career-high 35 touchdowns while posting the best completion percentage and quarterback rating of his career. He still makes play with his legs, as well. Wilson should be headed for another big statistical year, and if the Seahawks rise to the top of the NFC West, he should get plenty of attention from MVP voters.
Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons (+3000)
Lost in Atlanta’s 7-9 record was the fact that Ryan put up numbers that were nearly as good as in his MVP season of 2016. He finished the year with 4,924 yards, 35 touchdowns, a 69.4 completion percentage, 8.1 yards per attempt and a 108.1 quarterback rating, all of which were the second-best marks of his career. Ryan clearly isn’t slowing down, and with receiver Calvin Ridley and tight end Austin Hooper developing into solid weapons alongside Julio Jones, he has the pieces in place to continue to put up big numbers. If the Falcons are back in playoff contention, I expect Ryan to be back in the thick of the MVP race.
Sleeper Special
Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers (+5000)
History says that you should stick to quarterbacks, even when betting on longshots, but my one exception is McCaffrey. Last year, he rushed for 1,098 yards and averaged 5.0 yards per carry while setting the single-season record for receptions by a running back with 107 grabs for 867 more yards. He also found the end zone a total of 13 times. Heading into his third season, the Panthers have said they may put even more of a load on McCaffrey’s shoulders as quarterback Cam Newton comes back from shoulder surgery. If he becomes just the third player to top 1,000 rushing yards and 1,000 receiving yards in the same season while finishing among the league leaders in touchdowns, McCaffrey could break up the quarterback MVP party.
2019 NFL AP MVP Odds
Patrick Mahomes +550
Andrew Luck +600
Aaron Rodgers +1000
Drew Brees +1200
Baker Mayfield +1100
Tom Brady +1600
Carson Wentz +1200
Philip Rivers +2000
Russell Wilson +2500
Mitchell Trubisky +2000
Matt Ryan +3000
Deshaun Watson +2000
Jimmy Garoppolo +3300
Jared Goff +4000
Cam Newton +2500
Ben Roethlisberger +3000
Aaron Donald +5000
Alvin Kamara +5500
Dak Prescott +5000
Christian McCaffrey +6000
Ezekiel Elliot +5000
Lamar Jackson +5500
Le’Veon Bell +6000
Khalil Mack +6000
Saquon Barkley +5000
Todd Gurley +6000
Kyler Murray +6600
Nick Foles +6600
David Johnson +7500
Josh Allen +7500
Sam Darnold +9000
Odell Beckham Jr +9000
Michael Thomas +9000
Kirk Cousins +3000
Julio Jones +9000
Joey Bosa +9000
JJ Watt +12500
Jameis Winston +10000
Antonio Brown +10000
Juju Smith-Schuster +10000
Matthew Stafford +10000
Tyreek Hill +10000
Leonard Fournette +15000
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