Five Takeaways From NFL Week 12
WOW…just WOW…what a Sunday it was in the NFL! My local watering hole in Costa Rica had everything from bettors yelling and screaming in joy to the bookie throwing glasses around the place like a raging lunatic. Loved it all! Let’s look at five takeaways from Sunday.
Favorites Kill the Bookies
Last week I had an article published on gambling911.com in which I talked about all the massive spreads this week, and this year in general. To sum it up real quick, there were 20 games prior to this week with double-digit spreads. The favorite was 7-13, with five of those favored teams losing straight up. That was NOT the case this week.
This week had 5 games close with a double-digit spread. Of those five, the Eagles (-15), Patriots (-17.5) and Falcons (-11) all covered, while the Steelers won by 3 as a 15-point favorite and the Chiefs lost 16-10 to the Bills. Could any sharp really have trusted the Chiefs anyways?
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But this doesn’t near tell the whole story. We all know the public likes to bet the favorite and the OVER. In the eleven early games on Sunday, the favorite was 9-2 ATS. The OVER was a more reasonable 4-5. However, when looking at November as a whole, favorites killed it at 37-15-4 ATS, which according to ESPN Stats and Information, was the best month for favorites against the spread since the Super Bowl era.
The Cowboys Suck, Eagles for Real
Most pundits had the Cowboys winning their second straight NFC East title this year. Sure, their season has been topsy-turvy to say the least with the on-again, off-again suspension of last year’s leading rusher Ezekiel Elliott. But no one could have predicted the troubles Jerry’s team would be having this year.
On Thursday, in their traditional Turkey Day game, this year against the LA Chargers, the Dallas Cowboys looked downright horra-awful (to quote Shaq describing Craig Segar’s suit). I thought the Cowgirls had the best O-line in the game? So let’s start with their ground game.
The Chargers are a middle-of-the-road defense, ranking 18th in total defense. A closer look also shows they are dead last in most rushing defensive stats. They have given up the most rushing yards (1468), the most rushing yards per game (133.5) and the most rushing yards per attempt (4.9) so far this season.
The Cowboys were able to muster only 79 yards on 20 carries on Thursday, good for just 3.95 yards per carry. Again, I understand they are without possible their best player, but there’s no way one player makes a team this good or bad.
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On the other side of the spectrum we have the Eagles. As mentioned earlier, the Eagles easily covered the 15-points they were favored against the Bears. They won 31-3, but that far from tells the whole story.
Not only did QB Carson Wentz look to be in total control all day (23/36 – 227 yards w/ 3 TD’s – 91.8 QBR), but they possessed the ball for almost 15 more minutes than the Bears, having 420 total yards to Chicago’s 140. Their ground game was near unstoppable, rushing for 176 yards on 33 carries, with four players rushing for 25 or more yards, each totaling more than 5 yards per carry.
I could go on more about the Eagles offense, as the running backs were not the only stars on the offensive side, but I have to give credit to the defense as well. The Eagles defense held the Bears to 6 rushing yards…yes…6! If you minus the 12 from QB Mitch Trubisky, the RB’s actually had -6 yards.
They also held Trubisky to 147 yards through the air, intercepting and sacking him twice, as he finished with a QBR of 0.3…how about those numbers? At 10-1, the Eagles are well on their way to the NFC East title, and hoping the conference playoffs go through Philadelphia.
Time to Question the Coaches
Let’s start with Denver, who started Paxton Lynch against the Raiders. Am I questioning that decision? Not really, because the Broncos have looked worst than the Cowboys. However, before going down with an ankle injury, Lynch was 9 for 14 with 41 yards and an INT. He could not get a point on the board for the Broncos.
After his injury, Trevor Siemian came in and went 11/21, throwing for 149 yards and 2 TDs. Although the Broncos couldn’t get any closer that the 21-14 final score, it seemed as though Siemian would have been the much better option to start the game.
How about in the Bay Area? I know, I know, it was a very, VERY small sample size, but did you see what Jimmy G did in his brief 49er debut? After C.J. Beathard went down with an apparent leg or knee injury, Jimmy Garoppolo came in and threw San Francisco’s only TD on the day. He went 2 of 2 for 18 yards and the touchdown pass to WR Louis Murphy.
It’s much too early to call Jimmy the future of the 49ers, but it has to raise some questions as to whether or not he should be starting.