2016 NFL AFC Championship Game Picks & Predictions: Patriots @ Broncos Expert Picks

2016 NFL AFC Championship Game Picks & Predictions: Patriots @ Broncos Expert Picks: Two familiar foes will face off with a spot in the Super Bowl on the line when Peyton Manning leads the top-seeded Denver Broncos against the Tom Brady and the No. 2 seed New England Patriots in the AFC title game. It will be the 17th time the two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks will meet and the fifth time in the postseason. Brady holds an 11-5 edge in the overall series, but the two have split four postseason meetings, and Manning actually holds a 2-1 edge in conference title games. That being said, the Patriots head into the matchup as 3-point favorites on the road.

It wasn’t a walk in the park, but the Patriots beat a red hot Kansas City team in the divisional round to reach the conference title game for the 10th time with Brady under center. More importantly, New England is getting healthy along the offensive line and at the skilled positions. Receiver Julian Edelman and tight end Rob Gronkowski both starred in the divisional round win, and the New England offense is a different animal when those two players are on the field. Defensively, the Patriots may have the best front seven of the Bill Belichick era.

Denver’s eventful season continued with Manning leading the Broncos to a win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in his first start since being sidelined with a foot injury. Running back C.J. Anderson ran well in the win, but Manning still struggled to stretch the field and didn’t have a touchdown pass. Of course, Denver’s stingy defense also kept the Steelers’ passing attack in check, and the unit has ranked as one of the best in the NFL all year.

The Patriots Win If:

For the Patriots to win, their offensive line has to be able slow down the Denver pass rush. Brady doesn’t have many weaknesses, but teams that are able to apply steady pressure up the middle have had success. If Brady is comfortable in the pocket, he can carve up any secondary. Defensively, New England needs to shut down Denver’s ground game and force Manning to have to beat them over the top. Manning is still brilliant at the line of scrimmage before the snap, but just hasn’t shown the ability to beat defenses deep down the field for more than a year now. By stacking the line of scrimmage and playing press coverage on the outside, the Patriots can force Manning to have to make perfect throw after perfect throw in order to move the ball.

The Broncos Win If:

If the Broncos are going to win the game, they need to make Brady uncomfortable. As good as Denver’s cornerbacks care, Brady can beat any defense when he has a clean pocket to throw from. Strong individual performances from pass-rushers DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller will help, but it is going to take a steady pressure throughout the game for Denver to truly shut down Brady and company. Offensively, the Broncos have to establish their ground game. Denver is tough to beat with they run the ball well, and the Broncos are very vulnerable when they have to throw the ball the entire game. Manning will still have to make some big throws, but if the Denver offense can keep the New England defense guessing, the Broncos can put points on the board and keep the down and distances manageable.

Bottom Line:

History says the Broncos have the advantage in this matchup between Brady and Manning. In their 16 previous meetings, the player with home-field advantage has won 11 times with the last loss coming back in 2007. Perhaps more importantly, the player with home-field advantage has won all four previous playoff meetings. That being said, it is hard to watch Manning play right now and believe he has a chance of knocking of Brady and the Patriots. He can’t consistently complete passes more than 10 yards down the field, and he hasn’t been able to finish off drives in the red zone. Granted, the Broncos actually beat the Patriots earlier this year with Brock Osweiler under center, but it’s playoff time, and the Patriots are as healthy as they have been in weeks. At the end of the day, Brady is just more capable of making the big plays that will decide the game than this current version of Manning.

Prediction: New England Patriots (-3) Cover the Spread

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