2014 Super Bowl XLVIII Picks: Seattle Seahawks vs Denver Broncos Odds and Predictions – Super Bowl XLVIII Picks 2/2/2014

2014 Super Bowl XLVIII Picks: Seattle Seahawks vs Denver Broncos Odds and Predictions – Super Bowl XLVIII Picks 2/2/2014: Another NFL season will come to a close Sunday when the Seattle Seahawks (15-3) meet the Denver Broncos (15-3) in Super Bowl XLVIII, and it is tough to imagine a more-fitting matchup. After all, Seattle is the top seed from the NFC and boasts the NFL’s best defense while Denver is the top seed from the AFC and owns the NFL’s best offense. Throw in storylines such as the weather in the Meadowlands, Peyton Manning’s legacy and Richard Sherman’s trash talk, and an epic battle could be on tap. In this matchup of strength versus strength, the Broncos are 2 ½-point favorites.

Seattle’s run to the Super Bowl has been fueled by an elite defense and an overall dedication to physical play. The Seahawks’ defense allowed the fewest points and yards per game this year, ranking first against the pass and seventh against the run. The unit also led the NFL in interceptions and total takeaways and ranked in the top 10 in sacks. Cornerback Richard Sherman and safety Earl Thomas lead a secondary that has been nicknamed the “Legion of Boom” while linebacker Bobby Wagner and defensive end Cliff Avril are among the playmakers up front. Offensively, running back Marshawn Lynch leads a ground attack that ranked fourth in the league during the regular season, and with dual-threat quarterback Russell Wilson under center, the Seahawks ranked eighth in the league in scoring. Seattle’s offense stands to improve in the Super Bowl with receiver Percy Harvin expected to return.

For Denver, a record-setting offense led by quarterback Peyton Manning has helped the Broncos roll into the Super Bowl XLVIII. With weapons like Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Wes Welker and Julius Thomas at his disposal, Manning set single-season records for passing yards and passing touchdowns while the Broncos set a record for points scored. Defensively, Denver has been solid against the run, but injuries throughout the secondary coupled with the loss of pass-rusher Von Miller for the season has left the Broncos pass defense vulnerable at times. Overall, Denver ranked 27th against the pass during the regular season while ranking 21st in points allowed. However, the Broncos also led the NFL with a point differential of plus-207.

The Seahawks Win If:

If the Seahawks are going to win the game, they have to be able to make Manning uncomfortable in the pocket by getting consistent pressure up front and by getting physical with Denver’s receivers in the secondary. The Broncos have a lot of firepower in the passing game, but if Seattle is able to disrupt the timing between Manning and his receivers and force him to make quick throws underneath, the Seahawks are going to be able limit explosive plays and tame Denver’s offense. When they have the ball, the Seahawks need to establish their power ground game as soon as possible. For one, running the ball and controlling the clock will keep Manning and company on the sidelines. In addition, a steady running game will set up big play chances for Wilson in the passing game against an injured Denver secondary. If Seattle can make sure this game is a grinding, physical battle rather than a high-scoring shootout, the Seahawks have the personnel on both sides of the ball to win the game.

The Broncos Win If:

A strong showing from the Denver offense is going to go a long way to determining whether or not the Broncos win the game. Denver isn’t built to win a war in the trenches, especially against a power running, defensive-minded team like Seattle. On the flip side, the Seahawks don’t have the passing attack to keep pace with the Broncos if Manning and company get rolling early. If Denver’s offense can put some points on the board in the first few drives and its defense can rise to the occasion early and slow the Seattle ground game, the Broncos will be in the driver’s seat. Playing from head will allow Manning to pick his spots against the Seattle defense, and it will force Wilson to have to throw the ball in order help the Seahawks try to keep pace. If the Broncos turn this into a battle of quarterbacks instead of a battle of defenses, Denver’s edge in offensive firepower should win out.

Bottom Line:

It isn’t exactly common for the top offense to meet the top defense in the Super Bowl, but in the four previous showdowns, the top-rated defense has a 3-1 edge. This particular matchup is even more intriguing because it is also a battle between Seattle’s top-rated passing defense and Denver’s record-setting passing offense. Something has to give on Sunday, and history says it is likely Manning and company are in trouble. At the end of the day, Denver’s Super Bowl hopes rest with Manning, and when he has struggled in the past, it has been against teams that can pressure the passer and play physical in the secondary. The Seahawks are one of the better teams at generating pressure with just their defensive front, and no team has a better combination of size, speed and strength in the secondary. Throw in the weather factor that will at the very least be cold and could possibly include winds and precipitation that will really make throwing down the field difficult, and all the pieces are in place for the Seahawks to at least keep Manning’s numbers reasonable. Denver just isn’t stout enough on defense and doesn’t have a tough enough run game to outmuscle Seattle if Manning doesn’t have a big game, and the Seahawks will make sure he doesn’t.

Prediction: Seattle Seahawks (+2 ½) Cover the Spread 

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