2014 NFL WildCard Playoff Picks: San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers Odds and Predictions – NFC Wild-Card Round Picks 1/5/2014

2014 NFL WildCard Playoff Picks: San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers Odds and Predictions – NFC Wild-Card Round Picks 1/5/2014: Two storied franchises will meet once again when the San Francisco 49ers (12-4) head to Lambeau Field to face the Green Bay Packers (8-7-1) in the NFC Wild-Card Round of the playoffs Saturday night. The two teams have combined for 11 Super Bowl appearances, including nine victories, and they are no strangers to facing one another in the postseason. In fact, Saturday’s game is rematch of last year’s Divisional Round matchup that the 49ers won in San Francisco. This time around, the Packers are the home team, but the 49ers are still 3-point favorites.

An elite defense and strong running game have been the backbone of the 49ers’ success this season. Running back Frank Gore has provided the power and dual-threat quarterback Colin Kaepernick has provided the big plays for an offense that ranks third in rushing and 11th in scoring. Defensively, San Francisco ranks fifth in terms of yards allowed and third in points allowed. The unit really doesn’t have a weakness, ranking seventh against the pass and fourth against the run. Overall, San Francisco ranks second in the NFL in turnover differential.

Despite missing star quarterback Aaron Rodgers for much of the season, the Packers managed to win the NFC North and sneak into the playoffs thanks to a much-improved ground game and timely return of Rodgers in the regular-season finale. Rookie back Eddie Lacy ran for more than 1,100 yards for a ground game that ranked seventh in the NFL. Thanks to a receiving corps that features Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and others, the passing attacked was potent even with Rodgers missing time, ranking sixth in the NFL. Overall, the Packers ranked third in yards and eighth in scoring this season. On the flip side, the Green Bay defense has really struggled, ranking outside the top 20 in points allowed, rushing yards allowed and passing yards allowed.

The 49ers Win If:

While defense has been San Francisco’s calling card, a big game from the 49ers’ offense is what is going to beat the Packers. If Kaepernick and company get their offense rolling early, they should have no problem wearing down an already-shaky Green Bay defense and piling up a ton of points. More importantly, an early lead will eventually make the Green Bay offense predictable, forcing Rodgers to throw on every down to keep pace. Defensively, San Francisco needs to get a ton of heat on Rodgers. Keep in mind that the Green Bay QB is making just his second start November 4 so making him move around and throw on the run will definitely test any rust that might exist.

The Packers Win If:

For the Packers to win the game, they have to support their defense with consistent drives on offense. Sure, big plays and quick scores are nice, but a back-and-forth shootout will almost-certainly leave the Green Bay defense worn out and completely ineffective. Instead, the Packers need to utilize their balance on offense to control the clock a bit and allow their defense to remain fresh. A big performance from Lacy will go a long way to tipping the scales in Green Bay’s favor. Defensively, the Packers’ best chance for success involved slowing down the San Francisco ground game and hoping Kaepernick has a poor game throwing the ball from the pocket.

Bottom Line:

While the return of Rodgers and Cobb definitely make the Green Bay offense more formidable heading into the matchup with the 49ers, scoring points hasn’t been the issue for the Packers against San Francisco the past couple of years. In last year’s playoff game, Rodgers and company scored 31 points, and in this year’s season opener against the 49ers, they scored 28. Unfortunately, Green Bay’s porous defense allowed 45 and 34 points, respectively, in those two matchups. Worse yet, Kaepernick was able to gash the Packers’ secondary for a career-high 412 passing yards in Week 1 and pile up 444 yards of total offense in the playoffs last year. San Francisco’s offense has been able to do whatever it wants against the Green Bay defense, and even though the Packers’ offense hasn’t been shut down, Rodgers and company simply can’t keep pace against a stingy 49ers’ defense while getting zero support from their own defensive unit.

Prediction: San Francisco 49ers (-3) Cover the Spread

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