2014 NFL WildCard Playoff Picks: San Diego Chargers @ Cincinnati Bengals Odds and Predictions – AFC Wild-Card Round Picks 1/5/2014

2014 NFL WildCard Playoff Picks: San Diego Chargers @ Cincinnati Bengals Odds and Predictions – AFC Wild-Card Round Picks 1/5/2014: It will be a case of déjà vu when the San Diego Chargers (9-7) face the Cincinnati Bengals (11-5) in the AFC Wild-Card Round Sunday. The two teams met in Week 13 of the regular season in San Diego with the Bengals emerging with a 17-10 win. Since then, the Chargers were able to back their way into the playoffs thanks to losses by Miami and Baltimore in the final week of the regular season while the Bengals wrapped up the AFC North by beating Baltimore in Week 17. With one win against the Chargers under their belts, the Bengals are 7-point favorites at home in the rematch.

San Diego has relied heavily on its offense all year, and quarterback Philip Rivers have been at the helm of the fourth-best passing attack, throwing for almost 4,500 yards and 32 scores. Rookie receiver Keenan Allen has been his top target, but Rivers has spread the ball around to a variety of receivers. Meanwhile, running back Ryan Matthews provided some balance, running for more than 1,200 yards for an offense that ranked fifth in yards per game. Defensively, the Chargers have been average at best, ranking outside the top 10 in points and yards allowed. The San Diego secondary has been particularly vulnerable, ranking 29th in the NFL.

For the Bengals, an excellent defense has been supported by a solid offense. Led by an excellent defensive line, Cincinnati ranks third in points allowed, fifth against the run, fifth against the pass and 10th in sacks this season. Offensively, the Bengals have struggled to run the ball, but Andy Dalton has emerged in his third year as starter, throwing a franchise-record 33 touchdowns. His main target was star receiver A.J. Green, who finished the regular season with 1.416 yards and 11 scores. Overall, Cincinnati ranks sixth in the NFL in scoring.

The Chargers Win If:

For the Chargers to win the game, they have to hold their own in the trenches. In the first meeting, the Bengals shut down San Diego’s high-scoring passing attack by getting constant pressure on Rivers. Meanwhile, Cincinnati’s ground attack pounded away at San Diego’s defense, and the Chargers’ unit collapsed in the second half. Plain and simple, Rivers needs time to throw if San Diego is going to score points, and the Chargers’ defense isn’t good enough to be on the field all game. If San Diego can toughen up and control the line of scrimmage, the Chargers have the offensive firepower to win the game.

The Bengals Win If:

If the Bengals are going to beat the Chargers for the second time, their defense has make life miserable for Rivers. San Diego’s offense has lived and died with the passing game all year, and if Cincinnati slows down Rivers, the Chargers aren’t going to put many points on the board. When they have the ball, the Bengals need to play mistake-free football, making sure not to give the San Diego offense any easy scoring opportunities. In addition, the Bengals need to be able to sustain drives early in the game in order to wear down a shaky San Diego defense. Cincinnati already executed the perfect game plan to beat San Diego. The Bengals just have to do it again.

Bottom Line:

Everything about this matchup is bad news for San Diego. After all, the Bengals have one of the best defensive fronts in the NFL, and the unit has already shown it can outmuscle the Chargers’ average offensive line and disrupt Rivers and company. The same nasty defense that shut down San Diego isn’t going anywhere, and now, Cincinnati gets to play on its home turf where its offense also comes to life. The Bengals are averaging 34.4 points per game at home, and Dalton has played much better at Paul Brown Stadium. After being able to win a defensive battle in San Diego, Cincinnati should have no trouble winning the rematch at home where they haven’t lost a game all season.

Prediction: San Diego Chargers (-7) Cover the Spread

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