2014 NFL Playoff Picks: San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos Odds and Predictions – AFC Divisional Round Picks 1/12/2014

2014 NFL Playoff Picks: San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos Odds and Predictions – AFC Divisional Round Picks 1/12/2014: A pair of AFC West foes will meet with a spot in the conference title game on the line when the San Diego Chargers (10-7) face the Denver Broncos (13-3) in a Divisional Round matchup Sunday evening. The game is also a rubber match between the two teams after both won on the opposition’s home field during the regular season. San Diego heads into the game on the heels of a convincing win against the Cincinnati Bengals, but the top-seeded Broncos are 10-point favorites at home coming off the bye week.

The recipe for success for San Francisco has been a strong running game and an even stronger defense. Running back Frank Gore has been a workhorse and dual-threat quarterback Colin Kaepernick has provided big plays with his legs for an offense that ranks third in rushing and 11th in scoring. The 49ers’ offense has become even more dynamic recently with the return of receiver Michael Crabtree. Defensively, San Francisco ranks fifth in terms of yards allowed and third in points allowed. The unit is solid across the board, ranking seventh against the pass and fourth against the run. Overall, San Francisco ranks second in the NFL in turnover differential.

Carolina’s emergence as one of the top teams in the NFL has been fueled by an excellent defense. During the regular season, the Panthers allowed the second-fewest yards and second-fewest points in the NFL while leading the league with 60.0 sacks. Linebacker Luke Kuechly is the star of a unit that also ranks second against the run and sixth against the pass. Offensively, Carolina has been very one dimensional, ranking 11th in running but 29th in passing. DeAngelo Williams has been the primary running back for the Panthers, but quarterback Cam Newton is the team’s top offensive weapon. During the regular season, he threw for 24 touchdowns and ran for six more while finishing second on the team with almost 600 rushing yards.

The Chargers Win If:

For the Chargers to win the game, they have be the more physical team in the trenches on both sides of the ball, particularly on offense by establishing Matthews and their ground game. When San Diego lost to Denver in Week 10, the Chargers ran the ball just 22 times. In their Week 15 upset, they ran the ball 44 times. Controlling the clock with a stout ground game will not only keep Manning off the field, but it will also wear down a mediocre Denver defense. When the Broncos’ offense is on the field, pressuring Manning and forcing him to pick his way down the field with a bunch of short passes is a must.

The Broncos Win If:

A fast start on offense will put Denver in the driver’s seat in this one. San Diego wants to keep the Broncos’ offense off the field as much as possible by running the ball early and often. If Manning and company score on their early possessions, the Chargers will have to abandon that strategy and start throwing the ball to keep pace. Needless to say, the Broncos are going to like their chances if the game comes down to a shootout between Manning and Rivers. Defensively, the Broncos have to hold their own in the trenches. If the Chargers are able to control the pace with their ground game, it is going to wear down Denver’s defense and put a lot of pressure on the Broncos’ offense to score on every possession.

Bottom Line:

While I wasn’t shocked to see the top-seeded Broncos favored at home, I was shocked by the 10-point spread. After all, the Chargers just went into Denver a couple of weeks ago and beat the Broncos. Not to mention the fact that Manning hasn’t exactly been dominant in the playoffs. In fact, he is below .500 for his career and has never won a playoff game when the temperature has been below 40 degrees. Meanwhile, San Diego appears to be hitting its stride, winning five straight games and punishing opponents on the ground behind a finally-healthy offensive line. I won’t guarantee an upset, but the two regular season meetings were decided by eight and seven points, respectively, and another close game seems likely this weekend.

Prediction: San Diego Chargers (+10) Cover the Spread

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