2014 NFL Playoff Picks: New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks Odds and Predictions – NFC Divisional Round Picks 1/11/2014

2014 NFL Playoff Picks: New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks Odds and Predictions – NFC Divisional Round Picks 1/11/2014: It will be battle of strength versus strength when the New Orleans Saints (12-5) and their high-powered passing attack face the stingy defense of the Seattle Seahawks (12-4) in an NFC Divisional Round matchup. As the top seed in the NFC, Seattle enjoyed a first-round bye. New Orleans on the other hand needed a field goal as time expired to oust the Philadelphia Eagles in the Wild-Card Round. The game also happens to a rematch of a Week 13 meeting that was won by Seattle, and this time around, the Seahawks are 8-point favorites.

For New Orleans, a passing attack that ranked second in the NFL during the regular season has been the backbone of the team’s success. Quarterback Drew Brees had another outstanding year, ranking second in the NFL in passing yards and passing scores. Tight end Jimmy Graham and receiver Marques Colston are his primary weapons, but the Saints have at least eight players that can be counted in the passing game. On the flip side, New Orleans has struggled to establish on type of a ground game, and Brees actually led the team with three rushing scores. Defensively, the Saints have been great at stopping the pass, and despite a below average run defense, they allowed the fourth-fewest points in the NFL this year.

The Seahawks have been one of the most balanced teams in the NFL this season. Their defense allowed the fewest yards in the NFL this season while allowing a league-low 14.4 points per game. Led by cornerback Richard Sherman, Seattle hauled in a league-high 28 interceptions and allowed the fewest passing yards per game to opponents. On offense, dual-threat quarterback Russell Wilson has been steady and efficient while running back Marshawn Lynch has been the workhorse for the fourth-best rushing attack and eighth-best scoring offense.

The Saints Win If:

For the Saints to pull off the upset, their offensive line has to hold its own in the trenches to give Brees time in the pocket. Perhaps more importantly, the Saints’ receivers have to win their one-on-one matchups with Seattle’s physical corners to create some separation. New Orleans’ offense may be more of a finesse passing attack, but the Saints are going to have to match Seattle’s toughness if they are going to get their aerial assault on track. Defensively, the Saints have to make Wilson beat them as a passer. If the Seahawks are able to easily move the ball on the ground, New Orleans’ defense is going to wear down while Seattle’s defense is going to remain fresh, and that is not a winning formula for the Saints.

The Seahawks Win If:

If Seattle’s secondary delivers a strong performance and slows down the Saints’ passing attack, the Seahawks are going to be in the driver’s seat. New Orleans has to be able to throw the ball to generate any kind of consistency on offense, and if Seattle disrupts the timing of the Saints’ passing game by getting pressure on Brees in the pocket and by jamming his receivers off their routes, points will be tough to come by. On offense, the Seahawks need to exploit a mediocre New Orleans run defense. If the Seahawks pound away at the Saints on the ground, it will not only set up some big plays for Wilson in the passing game, but it will also allow Seattle to keep its defense fresh and make life that much harder on Brees.

Bottom Line:

Give the Saints credit for finally winning a road playoff game, but Brees and company didn’t exactly look like a well-oiled machine. After all, Brees threw for just 250 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions against a Philadelphia secondary that was the worst in the NFL this season. This weekend, the Saints will be dealing with a Seattle secondary that has been the stingiest in the league. By the way, the Seahawks had no trouble slowing down Brees in a 34-7 destruction of New Orleans in Week 13 in Seattle. Plain and simple, the Seahawks are just a tough matchup for the Saints because of their excellent pass defense. The fact that New Orleans’ offense struggles on the road while the Seahawks are 15-1 at home since Wilson became the QB only stacks the odds further in Seattle’s favor.

Prediction: Seattle Seahawks (-8) Cover the Spread

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