2014 NFL Playoff Picks: New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles Odds and Predictions – NFC Wild-Card Round Picks 1/4/2014

2014 NFL Playoff Picks: New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles Odds and Predictions – NFC Wild-Card Round Picks 1/4/2014: For anyone that doesn’t think coaches play a major role in the success of an NFL team need to look no further than Saturday night’s NFC Wild-Card Round matchup between the New Orleans Saints (11-5) and Philadelphia Eagles (10-6) for proof otherwise. New Orleans coach Sean Payton returned from a one-year suspension, and the Saints returned to the postseason. Meanwhile, Chip Kelly left the college ranks and brought his up-tempo offense to Philadelphia, and the Eagles won the NFC East. Now, the two sides will meet with a spot in the Divisional Round on the line. The Eagles are 2 ½-points at home.

Armed with one of the best quarterbacks in the game in Drew Brees, it is no surprise that New Orleans ranked second in the NFL in passing this year. For his part, Brees ranked second in the league in both passing yards and passing touchdowns. Tight end Jimmy Graham was his top target, hauling in 16 touchdowns. On the flip side, the team’s run game has been nonexistent. Defensively, New Orleans has been much improved this season under coordinator Rob Ryan. The Saints are allowing the fourth-fewest points in the league, and their secondary ranks second.

Although Chip Kelly’s offense took a bit to get up to speed in the NFL, the Eagles became a scoring machine once Nick Foles took over for Michael Vick at quarterback. Foles threw 27 touchdowns and just two interceptions for the ninth-best passing game, and LeSean McCoy led the NFL in rushing for the top-rated ground attack. Overall, the Eagles ranked second in the NFL in points scored. While Philadelphia’s offense has been potent, the defense has struggled, especially when it comes to stopping the pass. In fact, the Eagles’ secondary has been the most generous in the league.

The Saints Win If:

If the Saints are going to win the game, Brees and the passing attack have to have a big game against the porous Philadelphia secondary. New Orleans doesn’t have a reliable ground game to fall back on so failing to get the air attack rolling isn’t option if the Saints want to put up enough points to beat the high-scoring Eagles. Defensively, the Saints need to have an excellent game when it comes to tackling. Philadelphia’s quick-strike offense counts on its speedy personnel being able to reel off yards after contact, and if New Orleans takes those big plays away, Brees and company should have a chance to win.

The Eagles Win If:

For the Eagles to win the game, Foles will need to continue to keep the offense running at a high level. The Eagles don’t want to do New Orleans any favors by becoming too one dimensional and predictable because when Foles and McCoy are both doing damage, Philadelphia’s offense is as good as any in the NFL. Defensively, the Eagles need to dare the Saints to try to run the ball and do everything they can to get pressure on Brees and disrupt New Orleans’ passing attack. If the Eagles’ offense plays at a high level and their defense can get at least a few stops throughout the game, Philadelphia can take  care of business.

Bottom Line:

At first glance, the Saints appear to have an ideal matchup against Philadelphia. After all, Brees and the second-best passing attack are going against the worst secondary in the NFL, and the Eagles’ top-10 passing attack will be facing a Saints’ secondary that is allowing the second-fewest yards in the NFL. However, New Orleans has always been a better offensive team at home, and this season has been an extreme case. The Saints are averaging 25.9 points per game overall but just 17.8 on the road. Meanwhile, Brees has thrown 39 touchdowns and 12 interceptions this year but only 12 of his scores have come on the road compared to nine of his interceptions. The Eagles’ explosive offense is going to score some points, and the Saints aren’t the same offensive juggernaut outside of the Superdome. Home-field advantage for Philadelphia or rather home-field disadvantage for New Orleans will be the difference in this matchup.

Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles (-2 ½) Cover the Spread

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