2014 NFL Playoff Picks: Kansas City Chiefs @ Indianapolis Colts Odds and Predictions – AFC Wild-Card Round Picks 1/4/2014

2014 NFL Playoff Picks: Kansas City Chiefs @ Indianapolis Colts Odds and Predictions – AFC Wild-Card Round Picks 1/4/2014: The NFL playoffs open up Saturday afternoon when the Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) meet the Indianapolis Colts (11-5) in an AFC Wild-Card Round matchup. The game is a rematch of a Week 16 showdown that the Colts won 23-7 in Kansas City. This time around, Indianapolis is a 3-point favorite at home.

For the Chiefs, a 9-0 start was followed by a 2-5 finish to the year. Running back Jamaal Charles has been excellent throughout the year, piling up nearly 2,000 yards from scrimmage and 19 total scores while leading the team in both rushing and receiving. On the flip side, quarterback Alex Smith has been up and down all season long, and during the team’s recent skid, the defense has struggled mightily after being the best in the NFL in the early months.

Indianapolis has had a split personality this season, knocking off the likes of Denver, Seattle and San Francisco but losing to St. Louis, Miami and San Diego. On paper, Indianapolis isn’t all that impressive. Despite a trade for Trent Richardson, the Colts have struggled to run the ball. Meanwhile, an injury to Reggie Wayne has left the team without a true No. 1 receiver. Still, the Colts won 11 games thanks in large part to steady play from quarterback Andrew Luck and a bend-but-don’t-break defense that ranked ninth in fewest-points allowed.

The Chiefs Win If:

For the Chiefs to win the game, they need to establish Charles and their ground game early on in order to keep Smith in manageable situations. The last thing Kansas City wants is to fall behind and have to rely on Smith to outduel Luck. Not to mention the fact that Charles is Kansas City’s best offensive weapon so getting him a lot of touches only helps the Chiefs’ cause. Defensively, Kansas City needs to find its pass rush and make life miserable for Luck, forcing the Colts to try to rely on their below average ground game to score points.

The Colts Win If:

If the Colts are going to win the game, they need to focus on eliminating Charles from the game as much as possible and forcing Smith to have to throw the ball in order for Kansas City to score. On offense, Indianapolis has to keep the Chiefs’ pass-rushers at bay in order to allow Luck time to operate and find his speedy deep threat T.Y. Hilton for some big plays. Building an early lead would also be ideal for the Colts because if the Chiefs are behind heading into the later stages, Smith will have to start throwing as Kansas City tries to catch up. If the game comes down to whether Luck or Smith can make more plays, the Colts will be in great shape.

Bottom Line:

Although Indianapolis isn’t exactly a dynamic team on other side of the ball, the Chiefs aren’t really either. More importantly, a stingy defense that carried the team to a 9-0 start has suffered some injuries and simply isn’t the same unit anymore. Kansas City was torched for 41 points by San Diego in a loss, and the Chiefs even allowed 31 points to a bad Oakland offense, albeit in a win. Perhaps more importantly, Indianapolis went into Arrowhead just a couple of weeks ago and absolutely controlled the game from start to finish. In that game, Luck was sacked just once and Charles had just 13 carries. The Colts executed the perfect plan to beat the Chiefs in Kansas City Week 16, and they will do the same on their home field Saturday.

Prediction: Indianapolis Colts (-3) Cover the Spread

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