2014 NFL Playoff Picks: Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots Odds and Predictions – AFC Divisional Round Picks 1/11/2014

2014 NFL Playoff Picks: Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots Odds and Predictions – AFC Divisional Round Picks 1/11/2014: It will be battle of familiar playoff foes when the Indianapolis Colts (12-5) head to Foxboro to take on the New England Patriots (12-4) in an AFC Divisional Round matchup Saturday night. Of course, things are a little different this time around because while Tom Brady is still under center for the Patriots, Andrew Luck is now running the show in Indianapolis instead of Peyton Manning. Regardless, two franchises that have dominated the AFC over the past decade are set to meet on another big stage with a spot in the conference title game up for grabs. While the Colts enter the game coming off an incredible comeback win against Kansas City, the Patriots are 7-point favorites at home coming off a first-round bye.

The Colts’ wild rally from a 28-point deficit was a microcosm of their season. They don’t really dominant opponents in any particular area on either side of the ball, but they have a knack for making timely plays. The steady play of quarterback Andrew Luck has a lot to do with the team’s success, and his primary weapon in the passing game is speedy receiver T.Y. Yilton. Against the Chiefs, the two hooked up 13 times for 224 yards and two scores. Defensively, the Colts have been average this year, but they do have one of the top pass-rushers in Robert Mathis, who led the NFL with 19.5 sacks during the regular season. They also ranked second in the AFC in turnover differential.

Despite injuries to stars like tight end Rob Gronkowski and nose tackle Vince Wilfork, the Patriots were able to secure a first-round bye. Quarterback Tom Brady has gotten the most out of a make-shift receiving corps, and LeGarrette Blount and Stevan Ridley have combined to form a physical running back tandem. As a result, the Patriots have been balance on offense, ranking in the top 10 in both passing yards and rushing yards. Defensively, the Patriots have given up a lot of yardage, especially on the ground, but they rank 10th in terms of points allowed and fifth in sacks.

The Colts Win If:

If the Colts are going to win the game, they have to be able establish some sort of a running game against New England’s 30th-ranked run defense in order to keep some pressure off Luck and make the play-action game a threat. The backbone of the Indianapolis offense is Luck, and if New England doesn’t have to respect the Colts’ run game and can focus solely on rushing the passer and coverage in the secondary, Indy is going to be in trouble. Defensively, the Colts can’t allow the Patriots to pound them to death with their power running game. if Indianapolis is going to have a shot at slowing down Brady it starts with putting the New England offense in second and third and long situations.

The Patriots Win If:

Dominating in the trenches on both sides of the ball will be crucial for New England’s success in this game. Indianapolis hasn’t been particularly strong against the run, and if the Patriots can gain consistent yardage on the ground, Brady will have the entire playbook at his disposal to attack the Colts’ average defense. When the Patriots are on defense, getting their pass rush revved up and putting consistent pressure on Luck should slow the Colts’ offense to a crawl. Indy relies heavily on Luck to move the ball up and down the field, and if New England can get him out of rhythm, points are going to be few and far between for the Colts.

Bottom Line:

Luck and company deserve a ton of credit for fighting back against Kansas City and reaching the Divisional Round. However, the near-loss exposed some weaknesses that New England just happens to be built to take advantage of. Plain and simple, Indianapolis can’t run the ball, which takes a lot of pressure off a New England defense that has struggled to stop the run. As a result, Bill Belichick is sure to draw up a game plan that focuses on making life miserable for Luck, and the Patriots have the pass rush to do just that. Throw in the fact that New England’s running game found its footing just in time to face an Indianapolis defense that ranks 26th against the run, and Brady is likely going to be operating with favorable down and distances all game long. The Colts will fight and claw and find ways to score points because that’s what they do, but in the end, Brady and Belichick will design and execute a game plan that is too much for an Indianapolis team that basically lives and dies on the right arm of Andrew Luck.

Prediction: New England Patriots (-7) Cover the Spread

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