2014 NFL NFC Championship Game Picks: San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks Odds and Predictions – NFC Championship Picks 1/19/2014

2014 NFL NFC Championship Game Picks: San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks Odds and Predictions – NFC Championship Picks 1/19/2014: A pair of division rivals will meet in a rubber match with a spot in the Super Bowl on the line when the San Francisco 49ers (14-4) face the Seattle Seahawks (14-3) in the NFC title game Sunday night. The game is also a battle of two of the best defenses in the NFL, and from the players on the field to the coaches on the sidelines, there is no love lost between these two teams. San Francisco will be playing in the conference championship game for the third year in a row and is riding an eight-game winning streak, but the Seahawks are 3 ½-point favorites at home where they are 16-1 the past two seasons and 8-2 all time in the postseason.

Despite going 12-4 during the regular season, San Francisco has spent the entire postseason on the road, ousting the Green Bay Packers in a wild-card matchup and taking out the Carolina Panthers in the divisional round. As was the case in the regular season, the 49ers have relied heavily on their stingy defense. Offensively, San Francisco has been solid. Frank Gore has been carrying the load in the ground game and has 37 carries already. Meanwhile, quarterback Colin Kaepernick has been making big plays with his arm and his legs, and he has more than 400 yards through the air and more than 100 on the ground.

Seattle earned the top seed in the NFC during the regular season, and after getting a bye in the first round, they stifled the New Orleans Saints in the divisional round to reach the NFC title game. Of course, it was no surprise that the Seahawks shut down Drew Brees and company. After all, Seattle’s defense was the best in the NFL during the regular season in several categories, and the team’s secondary was hands down the best in the business. On the offensive side of the ball, running back Marshawn Lynch was the centerpiece during the regular season, and he had a monster game in the win over the Saints. Quarterback Russell Wilson was solid during the regular season, but the passing attack has really sputtered down the stretch.

The 49ers Win If:

If the 49ers are going to win this game, Kaepernick has to find a way to establish some sort of passing game, and he can’t afford to turn the ball over. The Seahawks are going to go play man-to-man coverage in the secondary and dare San Francisco to beat them through the air. If Kaepernick can’t find a way to beat the Seattle corners, the Seahawks are going to load the box to take away the run, and the 49ers are going to struggle to score points. Defensively, San Francisco needs to give Seattle a taste of its own medicine. If the 49ers can take away the Seahawks’ ground game and make Wilson try to beat them with his mediocre receiving weapons, Seattle’s offense is going to struggle. As long as San Francisco’s defense takes care of business, it will be up to Kaepernick to deliver enough plays to put the 49ers over the top.

The Seahawks Win If:

For the Seahawks to win the game, they need a big effort from their defense. Specifically, Seattle needs to dominate the line of scrimmage to shut down the San Francisco ground game and put steady pressure on Kaepernick. The 49ers want to line up and run the ball, but if the Seahawks can consistently put San Francisco’s offense in obvious passing situations, their top-rated secondary will have a chance to make some big plays. Offensively, Wilson has to be able to make plays with his arm in order to sustain drives and allow Lynch and the ground game to wear down the 49ers’ defense. A few scoring drives early in the game would also go a long to putting Seattle in the driver’s seat.

Bottom Line:

In a battle between two hard-hitting, defensive-minded teams, home-field advantage could end up being the deciding factor. After all, both teams won on their home field during the regular season with the Seahawks winning 29-3 in Seattle in Week 2 and the 49ers winning 19-17 in San Francisco in Week 14. More importantly, Kaepernick has been miserable in two starts at Seattle, completing just 50.0 percent of his passes and throwing just a single touchdown compared to four interceptions. Granted, the 49ers have already won two games on the road this postseason and the Seahawks’ offense is slumping a bit, but San Francisco is averaging just 8.0 points per game in two trips to Seattle with Kaepernick as the starter. Thanks to the lockdown defense the Seahawks play on their home field, even a struggling Seattle offense can find a way to put enough points on the board to win. Seattle’s home-field advantage will ultimately be the difference in a low-scoring defensive battle.

Prediction: Seattle Seahawks (-3 ½) Cover the Spread

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