2014 NFL AFC Championship Game Picks: New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos Odds and Predictions – AFC Championship Picks 1/19/2014

2014 NFL AFC Championship Game Picks: New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos Odds and Predictions – AFC Championship Picks 1/19/2014: The two best quarterbacks of their generation will for the fourth time in the postseason and 15th time overall when Tom Brady and the New England Patriots (13-4) meet Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos (14-3) in the AFC title game Sunday. Brady and company beat Manning and the Broncos in Foxboro earlier this year, and overall, Brady holds a 10-4 edge over Manning in head-to-head meetings, including a 2-1 edge in the playoffs. However, the QB playing at home has won every playoff meeting in the rivalry, and with Sunday’s matchup being played in Denver, the Broncos are 4-point favorites.

Despite being ravaged by injuries on both sides of the ball all season, the Patriots grabbed the No. 2 seed in the AFC and earned a first-round bye. New England then took care of business in the divisional round, throttling the Indianapolis Colts. Quarterback Tom Brady is the unquestioned leader of the team, but the Patriots have been utilizing a power running game down the stretch fueled by the duo of LeGarrette Blount and Stevan Ridley, who accounted for six touchdowns in the divisional round win. Meanwhile, New England’s defense has relied on physical play in the secondary and a stout pass rush to offset the loss of several key players to injury.

The Broncos rolled through their schedule on their way to the No. 1 seed in the AFC behind an offense that set a single-season record for points scored. Along the way, quarterback Peyton Manning set single-season records for touchdown passes and passing yards. On the flip side, Denver has been vulnerable defensively, especially against the pass. The Broncos were already without top pass-rusher Von Miller, and they lost starting corner Chris Harris in their divisional round win against the San Diego Chargers.

The Patriots Win If:

For the Patriots to win the game, slowing down Manning is a must. Yes, Brady is great in his own right, but given the injuries to the Patriots’ receiving corps, a high-scoring shootout against the top-ranked Denver offense isn’t ideal. Instead, New England needs to pound the suspect Broncos’ defense with its suddenly effective ground attack, controlling the clock and wearing down Denver’s defensive line. When Manning is on the field, New England needs to force him to dink and dump his way down the field. Establishing a solid pass rush and jamming the Denver receivers at the line will go a long way to slowing down the Broncos’ attack. If New England turns this game into physical battle in the trenches, the Patriots should have the upper hand.

The Broncos Win If:

If the Broncos are going to win the game, they have to hold their own in the trenches on both sides of the ball. If New England is able to pound the ball on the ground and control the clock, Manning and the high-powered Denver offense are going to be trapped on the sidelines. When Denver has the ball, giving Manning time to operate will be crucial. The Patriots are going to try to force Manning to make quick decisions in order to eliminate any big plays from the Broncos offense. If Denver is able to handle the Patriots’ pass rush, Manning should have no trouble putting points on the board. Denver has to match New England’s physicality, but if the Broncos can do that, their edge in offensive firepower should win out.

Bottom Line:

Playing at home, it would be easy to give the edge to Manning and Broncos. However, thing are a little different than when Manning was in Indianapolis and home-field advantage meant playing in a dome. Home-field advantage in Denver just means the same chilly, windy conditions that Brady is very accustomed to playing in and winning in. Meanwhile, injuries to Denver’s defense puts almost all the pressure on Manning to lead the Broncos to a win, and the Patriots are one of the few teams that have consistently been able to frustrate and confuse future Hall of Famer. Throw in the fact that New England was able to erase a 24-point deficit in their victory over the Broncos earlier this year, and the mental grip that the Patriots already seem to hold on Manning only tightened. At the end of the day, the Patriots are physical in the trenches and in the secondary on defense, and they can run the ball on offense. That combination just happens to be the best recipe for beating the high-scoring Broncos, and the fact that New England has historically owned Manning is just icing on the cake.

Prediction: New England Patriots (+5.5) Cover the Spread

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