2013 Super Bowl XLVII Picks: Baltimore Ravens vs San Francisco 49ers Odds and Predictions – Free Super Bowl XLVII Picks 2/3/2012 : You will be hard pressed to find a sporting event in the United States more popular than the Super Bowl. Heck, there are people lobbying to have the day after the NFL’s biggest game become a national holiday. Every team dreams of its chance to play on the big stage, and this Sunday, the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers have earned the right to take their turn in the spotlight. Storylines abound as brothers John and Jim Harbaugh prepare to square off as opposing head coaches, while Baltimore linebacker Ray Lewis preps for what is expected to be his final game in the NFL. Not to mention the fact that a championship is at stake. One is all that stands between these teams and the Lombardi Trophy, and the 49ers have honor of entering the game as 3 ½-point favorites.
Baltimore’s road to the Super Bowl has been far from easy. From getting by a motivated Indianapolis team to the double-overtime miracle in Denver to the second-half domination in Foxboro, the Ravens have earned their spot in Sunday’s game. Along the way, quarterback Joe Flacco has found his stride, throwing eight touchdowns and no interceptions. Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin have been on the receiving end of plenty of throws as the two have been a perfect blend of speed and muscle in the passing game. Meanwhile, the ground game has gotten back to its punishing ways with Bernard Pierce emerging as a reliable backup to star Ray Rice. The end result has been a Baltimore offense that is averaging 29.3 points per game. The veteran-led defense has also been revitalized during the playoffs thanks in part to a healthy Haloti Ngata at nose tackle and the return of Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs from injuries. The unit even held a New England offense that led the NFL in scoring during the regular season to just 13 points, including zero in the second half.
For San Francisco, the playoffs have capped a transition from a defensive-minded approach to an offensive-minded one. Instead of just controlling the clock with their power running game, the 49ers have taken advantage of Colin Kaepernick’s powerful arm and running ability to expand their offensive attack to the tune of 36.5 points per game in the playoffs. Yes, Frank Gore and a nasty offensive line still to plenty damage, but Kaepernick has added an element of explosiveness that was lacking when Alex Smith was under center. The flip side of the improved offense has been a decline in the team’s defensive numbers. After having the third-best scoring defense in the league during the regular season, San Francisco is allowing 27.5 points per game in the postseason. Of course, the unit is still loaded with stars like Aldon Smith, Patrick Willis and Justin Smith, and the unit has made all the big plays when it has needed to.
The Ravens Win If:
Baltimore’s offense has been dialed in lately, and the biggest reason is the progression of Flacco and the vertical passing game. If the Ravens’ offensive line can give Flacco time in the pocket, he should be able to find Smith and Jones for big plays down the field against a San Francisco secondary that is known more for delivering hard hits than locking down receivers in coverage. Defensively, Baltimore has to win the battle in the trenches and control Gore and the power running game. If the San Francisco ground game is struggling, Kaepernick’s opportunities for big plays in the passing game and out of the pistol formation decrease significantly. At the end of the day, the Ravens should win the game if Flacco is comfortable in the pocket and Kaepernick is forced to become mainly a pocket passer.
The 49ers Win If:
As explosive as the San Francisco offense has become, Sunday’s game will be just the 10th start for Kaepernick. He has to be able to make big plays with his arm and his legs while avoiding any mistakes. The 49ers also have to establish Gore and the power running game in order to keep Baltimore’s defense from keying on Kaepernick. If the 49ers come out and establish their ground game, their offense is going to be able to attack the Baltimore defense in a variety of ways. Defensively, San Francisco’s pass rush has to get pressure on Flacco. He is too good at finding his speedy receivers down the field if he has time in the pocket, but if the 49ers take him out of his comfort zone, Flacco has had a history of being inaccurate on tight, intermediate throws. If Kaepernick and the 49ers’ offense can find a balance between power and big plays while taking away the big plays from the Baltimore passing game, San Francisco is going to capture another Super Bowl.
Bottom Line:
As talented as San Francisco’s defense is and as stout as it was most of the regular season, the unit hasn’t been quite the same since Kaepernick got under center. I’m not sure I’d go as far as to say the 49ers’ defense has become lazy now that the offense has been putting up points, but the unit definitely isn’t the same as the one that carried the team when Smith was the starting QB. In the postseason, Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers posted a 91.5 QB rating and Atlanta’s Matt Ryan threw for 396 yards and three scores while posting a 114.8 rating. More importantly, both QBs were sacked just once. Meanwhile, Baltimore’s defense has been on a tear, allowing just 19.0 points per game in the playoffs and just 14.3 points per game if you take away two return touchdowns by Denver. Flacco and the Ravens’ defense are both playing there best at the right time, and while San Francisco is a much more explosive team on offense these days, the recent lapses on the defensive side of the ball will come back to haunt them against Baltimore’s vertical passing attack. Throw in the shaky leg of 49ers’ kicker David Akers, and the recipe for an upset is in place.
Prediction: Baltimore Ravens (+3 ½) Cover the Spread
NFL Super Bowl XLVII @ Superdome – New Orleans, LA
Baltimore Ravens
San Francisco 49ers -3½ 47
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