2013 NFL Wild Card Playoff Picks: Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Playoff Picks 1/5/2013: For the second year in a row, the Cincinnati Bengals (10-6) will go on the road to face the Houston Texans (12-4) in an AFC Wild Card matchup. Houston got the better of Cincinnati in last year’s playoffs, pushing the Bengals’ record in road postseason games to a dismal 0-5. History may not be on Cincinnati’s side, but momentum sure is. While the Texans have lost three of their last four games, the Bengals have won three straight and seven of their last eight. Momentum aside, Houston is still favored at home in this one and is giving 4 ½ points to the Bengals.
A somewhat inconsistent offense and an improving defense have highlighted Cincinnati’s season thus far. Quarterback Andy Dalton and the passing attack generate most of the points. He has thrown for 27 touchdowns this year and almost 3,700 yards, but he has thrown 16 interceptions, as well. Receiver A.J. Green is his unquestioned top target and one of the best big play receivers in the game, and while the Bengals’ No. 2 option has been a work in progress, tight end Jermaine Gresham has been a steady producer. Meanwhile, BenJarvus Green-Ellis managed to top 1,000 yards on the ground, but the Cincinnati rushing attack was inefficient as a whole. Defensively, the Bengals own one of the NFL’s best pass rushes thanks to players like Geno Atkins and Michael Johnson. The unit gelled in the second half of the year, allowing just 12.8 points per game over the final eight games and 20.0 points per game on the season.
For Houston, a powerful, balanced offense and stout defense led the Texans to a division title this season. Running back Arian Foster was once again the focal point, piling up more than 1,600 yards from scrimmage and 17 scores. Meanwhile, quarterback Matt Schuab threw for more than 4,000 yards and 22 scores. Andre Johnson was by far his main target, and the receiver finished the regular season with 112 catches for 1,598 yards. Defensively, lineman J.J. Watt had an incredible year. He led the NFL with 20.5 sacks, 24 additional tackles for loss and somehow added 16 pass deflections and 81 tackles despite playing in a 3-4 scheme. The unit as a whole was one of the best in football until a rash of injuries to the linebacking corps took its toll. Houston still ranks in the top 10 against the run, but the defense now ranks just 16th against the pass and outside the top 10 in points allowed.
The Bengals Win If:
Dalton and Green are quickly becoming one of the best big play combinations in the NFL. If Cincinnati wants to end its playoff drought, they need to connect early and often. In fact, the Bengals need to attack the Texans’s secondary down the field in general. Houston allowed an average of 38.3 points per game to the high-powered passing attacks of Green Bay, New England and Detroit, and if Dalton has a big game, Cincinnati is going to be in great shape. Defensively, the Bengals need to try to slow down Foster in the early going and force Schaub to try to beat them through the air. If Houston has to rely on Schaub to carry its offense, the Bengals’ nasty pass rush can be used to its full effect. If the Bengals make sure this game is decided by which passing offense can do the most damage, they should win the game.
The Texans Win If:
The running game is Houston’s best friend in this matchup. Not only is the Texans’ offense at its best when Foster and company are controlling the pace on the ground and setting up big plays in the passing game, but a consistent running attack will go a long way to slowing down the Cincinnati pass rush. Defensively, Watt and company need to give the Bengals a taste of their own medicine and get plenty of pressure on Dalton. For all his success, Dalton is still young and has been prone to mistakes. If the Houston defense can force a couple Saturday, the Texans are going to be in great shape. If the Texans are able to establish a consistent ground game on offense and limit the Bengals’ big plays in the passing game, Houston is going to wear down Cincinnati and grind out a win.
Bottom Line:
All the attention in this matchup seems to be going to Watt and the Texans, but Cincinnati’s defense is playing as well as any unit in the league entering the postseason. The Bengals haven’t given up more than 20 points during the second half of the year, and they are actually allowing fewer points per game this season than the highly-touted Texans’ defense. More importantly, Cincinnati’s 51.0 sacks this year are the second most in the NFL, and Schaub has never fared well when he has been forced to throw under duress. Meanwhile, Houston’s defense has allowed at least 23 points in five of its last seven games, and the secondary has been one of the worst in football at allowing big plays in the passing game. Add it all up, and the Bengals’ passing attack on offense and pass un defense are the perfect combination for pulling off an upset of a Texans’ bunch that isn’t playing its best football right now.
Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals (+4 ½) Cover the Spread
Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans
Line: Houston -4.5
Total: Over/Under 43.5
Time: 4:30 PM EST on NBC
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