2013 NFL Sunday Night Picks: Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots Odds and Predictions – Free Sunday Night Football Picks 11/24/2013

2013 NFL Sunday Night Picks: Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots Odds and Predictions – Free Sunday Night Football Picks 11/24/2013: Two of the top teams in the NFL will meet Sunday night when the Denver Broncos (9-1) head to Foxboro to face the New England Patriots (7-3). Of course, the game is also a battle between the two best quarterbacks of this generation, and while Denver’s Peyton Manning is on a record-setting pace, New England’s Tom Brady has the Patriots atop their division despite a rash of injuries on both sides of the ball. Throw in the fact that the former Patriot Wes Welker will be returning to Foxboro for the first time since he became a Bronco, and there are plenty of rivalries rolled up into this battle of NFL heavyweights. Denver enters the matchup as a 2 1/1-point favorite, making the Patriots underdogs at home for the first time since 2005.

The recipe for success for Denver has been simple. The Broncos lead the NFL in passing yards and points per game, and Manning leads the NFL in passing yards, touchdowns and quarterback rating. Demaryius Thomas, Eric Delker, Julius Thomas and Welker are Manning’s main weapons in the passing game, and running back Knowshon Moreno leads a modest ground attack. On the defensive side of the ball, the Broncos have been stout against the run, allowing the fourth-fewest yards. On the flip side, Denver’s secondary has been shaky. However, star pass-rusher Von Miller just recently returned after being suspended for the first six games of the year.

For the Patriots, injuries have been the story all year. Star tight end Rob Gronkowski missed the first several games and receiver Danny Amendola has been in and out of the lineup. As a result, Brady was forced to throw to a pair of rookie receivers for much of the year, taking a serious toll on his overall numbers. The injuries have been even more devastating on defense. Star nose tackle Vince Wilfork is out for the year as is linebacker Jerod Mayo. Meanwhile, three of the Patriots’ starters in the secondary are questionable for Sunday’s game, including star corner Aqib Talib.

The Broncos Win If:

If the Broncos are going to win the game, their offensive line has to play well. Manning has been excellent this year, and if he has time to work in the pocket, he should be able to pick apart a banged up New England secondary. For his part, Manning can’t let the chilly temperatures knock him off his game as has been known to happen, especially in Foxboro. On the defensive side of the ball, Denver has to continue to stuff the run to force obvious passing situations. From there, the Broncos need to get plenty of pressure on Brady while forcing targets other than Gronkowski to do the damage.

The Patriots Win If:

For the Patriots to win Sunday, their defense has to be able to get into Manning’s face and disrupt the timing of Denver passing attack. Not to mention the fact that Manning has been dealing with some ankle issues so forcing him to move in the pocket could cause problems even if he isn’t actually sacked. When Manning does throw the ball, New England needs to force him to dink and dump with short passes rather than allow him to connect on big, game-changing plays. Offensively, Brady and company need to exploit the Denver secondary to put plenty of points on the board and increase the pressure on the Broncos’ offense to perform.

Bottom Line:

At first glance, backing New England would seem like the way to go. After all, the Patriots are getting points in Foxboro where they are 5-0 this year. Not to mention the fact that Manning has been known to struggle in cold weather and in big games, and Sunday night’s contest will feature both chilly temperatures and a pressure-packed atmosphere. That being said, New England’s injuries are tough to ignore. Even if all off the Patriots’ questionable defensive backs suit up, three starters and four players that see significant playing time will be at less than full strength. Against the high-powered Denver passing attack that is loaded with weapons, a banged up secondary isn’t exactly a recipe for success. Brady will find a way to put some points on the board, but in the end, Manning and company should be able to take advantage of the injuries and emerge victorious in a high-scoring shootout.

Prediction: Denver Broncos (-2 ½) Cover the Spread                         

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