2013 NFL Divisional Playoff Picks: Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Playoff Picks 1/13/2013: The Atlanta Falcons (13-3) have been in this situation before. Four the fourth time in five years under head coach Mike Smith, they are in the playoffs. Unfortunately, they are 0-3 in their three previous postseason trips. Atlanta will try to buck the trend against the Seattle Seahawks (12-5) Sunday afternoon when they put the NFC’s best record on the line against Seattle’s six-game winning streak. Either the Falcons are going to exorcise their playoff demons or the Seahawks are going to continue their hot streak. Regardless, only one team is going to survive this NFC Divisional matchup that promises to be a clash of styles. Armed with home-field advantage, Atlanta is a 2 ½-point favorite.
There probably isn’t a tougher team in the NFL than Seattle. On the offensive side of the ball Marshawn Lynch and a physical offensive line lead the NFL’s third-best rushing attack. Meanwhile, rookie quarterback Russell Wilson came on strong in the second half of the year, tying the rookie record for touchdowns in a single season with 26 and helping Seattle rank ninth in scoring. Defensively, the Seahawks allowed the fewest points in the NFL this season and ranked in the top 10 against both the run and the pass. The unit did suffer a bit of a loss last weekend when pass rusher Chris Clemons went down with a knee injury.
This season, Atlanta made the decision to abandon its run-first philosophy and hand the keys of the offense to quarterback Matt Ryan. He responded by throwing for 4,719 yards and 32 touchdowns for the seventh-best scoring offense in the NFL. Ryan has plenty of targets to throw to, including Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez. Defensively, the Falcons have been a bend-but-don’t-break unit. Atlanta’s defense ranked outside the top 20 against both the run and pass but allowed the fourth-fewest points.
The Seahawks Win If:
Finishing off drives will be crucial for Seattle in this matchup. It does no good for Lynch and company to drive up and down the field if all the end result is a field goal attempt. For his part, Wilson will have to continue to avoid having any rookie jitters and killing drives with turnovers. Defensively, Seattle’s big, physical corners need to win the battle with Atlanta’s dynamic receiving duo. If the Seahawks are able to take away the big plays from the Falcons’ passing game, the Atlanta offense becomes much less scary. At the end of the day, Seattle needs to punish the Falcons on both sides of the ball, finishing off drives on offense and bogging down Atlanta’s finesse passing game.
The Falcons Win If:
The matchup of Atlanta’s receivers versus the Seattle corners will be a crucial one for the Falcons. The Seahawks are big and physical in the secondary, but White and Jones have the speed to make plays down the field if they can handle the initial contact and the line of scrimmage. If White and Jones are consistently getting open, it is going to be business as usual for the Atlanta offense. Defensively, the Falcons have to continue to be stingy in the red zone. Forcing Seattle’s rookie QB into a few mistakes wouldn’t hurt either. In the end, Atlanta wins this game is its passing attack is able to move the ball consistently against the Seattle defense.
Bottom Line:
While there is no reason that Atlanta’s past playoff failures prevents them from having success this year, the Falcons’ overall philosophy does. They are a finesse team on offense with their passing attack, and they don’t exactly pound opponents with their defense either. For all his success, Ryan is 0-3 in the playoffs. Not to mention the fact that he is 33-5 at home during the regular season, but he and the Falcons got smashed in their only home playoff game to date. This will be Ryan and company’s second crack at it on their home turf, but the result isn’t going to be any different. Seattle’s physical style is a nightmare matchup for Atlanta’s passing attack, and Wilson’s mobility is also a concern, considering Carolina’s Cam Newton put up 704 yards of offense in two starts against the Falcons. Add it all up, and another promising regular season isn’t going to end well for the Falcons.
Prediction: Seattle Seahawks (+2 ½) Cover the Spread
Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Atlanta -3
Total: Over/Under 45.5
Time: 1:00 PM EST on FOX
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