2013 NFL Divisional Playoff Picks: Houston Texans @ New England Patriots Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Playoff Picks 1/13/2013: When the Houston Texans (13-4) visited Foxboro in Week 14, the New England Patriots (12-4) jumped out to a 28-0 lead and never looked back on their way to a 41-14 blowout win. Fresh off a win over the Cincinnati Bengals on wild-card weekend, the Texans now have to return to the scene of the crime Sunday in the AFC Divisional round. On the plus side, Houston’s ugly loss won’t matter one bit if the Texans can win the rematch in the postseason. That being said, the Patriots are hefty 9 ½-point favorites this weekend after such a convincing win in early December.
A balanced offense and solid defense carried the Texans this season. Arian Foster ran for more than 1,400 yards and a league-leading 15 touchdowns for the eighth-best ground attack while quarterback Matt Schaub topped 4,000 yards for the 11th-best passing game. Receiver Andre Johnson was Schaub’s main target, gaining nearly had 1,600 yards, but tight end Owen Daniels topped 700, as well. Defensive end J.J. Watt was the team’s star on defense, leading the NFL in sacks and tackles for loss and ranking in the top 10 in passes deflected. The Houston ranked in the top five in most defensive categories early in the year, but a rash of injuries took their tool. The Texans still finished the year with a top-10 run defense, but the pass defense slipped outside the top 15.
For New England, quarterback Tom Brady had another MVP-caliber year for the league’s top-scoring offense. The Patriots finished the year ranked fourth in passing and seventh in rushing thanks to the emergence of back Stevan Ridley. Meanwhile, Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez are all finally healthy for a passing attack that ranked fourth in the NFL. Defensively, New England struggled at times to defend the pass. However, a strong corps of linebackers and reloaded defensive line helped the Patriots rank in the top10 against the run and in the top 10 in points allowed.
The Texans Win If:
If the Texans are going to flip the script in the rematch versus the Patriots, they have to establish Foster and the ground game. He had just 46 yards on 15 carries in the Week 14 meeting, and the Houston offense couldn’t stay on the field. The Texans have to control the clock and keep Brady and company on the sidelines if they want any hope of knocking off New England. Meanwhile, Houston’s defense has to get a little pressure on Brady and make him uncomfortable in the pocket. There was only one game this year when Watt failed to record a sack, deflected pass or tackle for loss, and it was the New England game. He has to change that Sunday, and if he causes havoc in the backfield and Foster gets going, Houston can erase the embarrassing regular season loss with a big postseason win.
The Patriots Win If:
Considering the 42-14 victory in early December, New England has a pretty good formula for beating the Texans. It starts on defense with the Patriots slowing down Foster and putting the pressure on Houston’s passing attack. After all, Schaub is not going to win a head-to-head battle with Brady. Offensively, the Patriots need to give Brady time in the pocket. If he has time to scan the field, he is going to carve up a Houston secondary that struggles defending the deep ball. At the end of the day, New England will overwhelm the Texans once again if Schaub is forced to try to outgun Brady.
Bottom Line:
While there are countless examples of a team winning a regular season matchup with a team only to lose a rematch in the postseason, the Patriots can rest easy. From a stout rush defense to slow Foster to one of the best QBs in NFL history to carve up a Houston secondary known for allowing big plays, New England flat out matches up well with the Texans. Not to mention the fact that Patriots’ head coach Bill Belichick is one of the best in the business at exploiting an opponent’s weaknesses, especially with a bye week to prepare. Just as in the regular season meeting, New England is going to make this game become a battle of QBs, and there is no way Schaub and his one career playoff win is going to get the better of Brady as he prepares to pass Joe Montana for the most postseason wins in NFL history.
Prediction: New England Patriots (-9 ½) Cover the Spread
Houston Texans @ New England Patriots
Line: New England -9.5
Total: Over/Under 48.5
Time: 4:30 PM EST on CBS
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