2013 NFL Divisional Playoff Picks: Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Playoff Picks 1/12/2013: The Green Bay Packers (12-5) and San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1) opened the season against one another at Lambeau Field, and when the two teams meet again Saturday night in San Francisco, somebody’s season is going to come to an end. A lot has changed for both sides since the Week 1 opener, but at the end of the day, Saturday’s NFC Divisional playoff game is still a battle between Aaron Rodgers and the Packers’ offense and the 49ers’ stellar defense. San Francisco won the first meeting in Green Bay 30-22, but the 49ers are just 2 ½-point favorites at home in the rematch.
Give Rodgers credit. Green Bay’s run game has been terrible, the pass protection has been worse, and there have been injuries on both sides of the ball. Still, Rodgers led the NFL in QB rating and finished second in touchdowns as the leader of a potent passing attack. Randall Cobb and James Jones were actually the team’s two most productive receivers this season, but big names Jordy Nelson and Greg Jennings are finally healthy in time for the playoffs. Defensively, the Packers made major strides from last season, ranking 11th in points allowed. An improved pass rush led by Clay Matthews deserves a lot of the credit, and Green Bay ranked fourth in the NFL in sacks during the regular season.
For San Francisco, a stifling defense and power running game have once again been the team’s calling card. The 49ers allowed the second-fewest points in the league this season and ranked fourth against both the run and the pass. Meanwhile, Frank Gore led the NFL’s fourth-best rushing attack. A midseason QB switch to Colin Kaepernick has added another dimension to the offense thanks to his scrambling ability, and he and receiver Michael Crabtree showed instant chemistry. In fact, Crabtree became the team’s first 1,000-yard receiver since 2003.
The Packers Win If:
It all starts with pass protection for Green Bay. San Francisco’s secondary is too good at tackling in the open field, and if Rodgers is forced to make quick throws play after play, the Packers are going to struggle to score points. On the flip side, Rodgers has a healthy arsenal of receivers at his disposal, and if he gets even a little time, he should be able to move the ball down the field. Defensively, Green Bay needs to hold its own against the run and force Kaepernick to beat them. This is by far the biggest stage Kaepernick will have faced, and if the Packers can get their pass rush going, they may be able to force him into some mistakes. Giving Rodgers time in the pocket will allow Green Bay’s offense to set the tone, and Matthews and the defense can seal the deal with a stout pass rush.
The 49ers Win If:
San Francisco prides itself on being a physical team, and if the 49ers assert their will on both sides of the ball, it is going to be a long night for the Packers. It starts on the offensive end with Gore and the ground game, and if San Francisco is able to pound and control the clock, it will keep Rodgers on the sidelines and protect the inexperienced Kaepernick. The same philosophy holds true on defense. If San Francisco can get pressure on Rodgers and jam the Green Bay receiver, it will disrupt the timing of the Packers’ high-powered passing attack. Overall, the 49ers can win this game by dominating in the trenches on both sides of the ball.
Bottom Line:
In many ways, this game has a lot in common with Green Bay’s meeting with Atlanta in the 2011 playoffs. The Packers lost to the Falcons early in the year, but they demolished them in the rematch to the tune of a 48-21 beatdown. I’m not suggesting that the Packers are going to destroy the 49ers, but stopping Rodgers in the playoffs is a much different animal than stopping him in the season opener. Teams have been taking away the deep routes for the Packers all season, and Rodgers is plenty used to getting sacked. He has learned how to be successful in spite of this team’s shortcomings, and Green Bay went 9-2 down the stretch to prove it. Meanwhile, San Francisco has an element of uncertainty to deal with as Kaepernick prepares for his first playoff start. Add it all up, and the battle-tested Rodgers will use the lessons he learned from Week 1 to find a way to pull off the upset on the road.
Prediction: Green Bay Packers (+3) Cover the Spread
Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: San Francisco -3
Total: Over/Under 45
Time: 8:00 PM EST on FOX
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