2013 NFL Divisional Playoff Picks: Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Playoff Picks 1/12/2013: After a fairly unexciting wild-card weekend, the NFL playoffs will start up again Saturday when the Baltimore Ravens (11-6) go on the road to face the Denver Broncos (13-3) in an AFC Divisional matchup. Despite losing four of their final five regular season games, the Ravens righted the ship and knocked off Indianapolis last weekend. Meanwhile, the Broncos will put their 11-game winning streak on the line after getting last weekend off. These two teams met December 16 in Baltimore in a game won by Denver 34-17. Playing at home in the rematch, the Broncos are 9 ½-point favorites.
It has been a year of transition for Baltimore with the run-heavy, defensive-oriented style giving way to a more pass-friendly approach. Injuries on the defensive side have played a role in speeding up the process, but overall, Baltimore ranked in the top 15 in both rushing and passing this year. Quarterback Joe Flacco threw form ore than 3,800 yards and 22 scores while Ray Rice topped 1,100 yards on the ground. Defensively, Baltimore failed to rank in the top 15 against either the run or the pass. However, its is worth noting that stars Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs are back on the field for the unit after missing significant chunks of the season with injuries.
For Denver, the acquisition of Peyton Manning instantly transformed the Broncos into an offensive juggernaut. He finished second in QB rating and third in touchdowns for the league’s second-best scoring offense. Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker emerged as his top two options, but five different players caught at least 40 passes this year. Meanwhile, the defense was just as nasty. Denver’s unit ranked third against both the run and the pass and was fourth in points allowed. Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil are among the stars of a group that led the NFL with 52.0 sacks.
The Ravens Win If:
If Baltimore is going to pull off the upset of Denver, it has to establish Rice and the running game. He managed just 38 yards on 12 carries in the regular season meeting, and as a result, the Ravens’ normally potent play-action game was rendered useless. If Rice is able to get rolling early, it will slow down the Denver pass rush and allow Flacco time to stretch the field, taking the Baltimore offense to another level. More importantly, running the ball and sustaining drives will help the Baltimore defense remain rested and give the unit a chance to pressure Manning. The Ravens’ defense actually allowed just 10 points to Manning and company in the first half of the last game, but the unit became worn out in the second half as Baltimore failed to score a touchdown until the fourth quarter when the score was out of hand. Overall, a better showing from the Ravens’ offense, especially the running game, will help Baltimore turn the tables on the Broncos this time around.
The Broncos Win If:
Denver needs to follow its recipe for success from the regular season meeting and shut down Rice. If Baltimore can’t run the ball, it won’t sustain drives, and it won’t hit big plays off of play action. The end result will be Manning against Flacco in a battle of which QB can pick apart the opposition, and I think everyone knows who has the edge in that scenario. Early scores on the part of Denver will also go a long way to helping its cause. If the Broncos can get Ravens in obvious passing situations, Miller and company are going to go into attack mode on Flacco, and things could get ugly. If Denver makes sure Rice plays as small of a role as possible, the Broncos are going to have no problem winning a battle of the QBs and pass defenses.
Bottom Line:
The Baltimore Ravens definitely looked like a different team in the opening round of the playoffs, holding Indianapolis to just nine points. However, the Broncos just have too much talent on both sides of the ball. Keep in mind that Manning played an average game in the regular season meeting between the teams, and the game was still a blowout in favor of the Broncos. Not to mention the fact that Manning has won his last nine meetings with Baltimore and has gotten the better of much better defensive units than the one he will face Saturday. Denver’s ability to shut down the run on defense is going to take away Baltimore’s best weapon in Rice and Flacco’s best weapon in the play-action pass. The end result will be an inconsistent offense that has no hope of keeping pace with Manning and company. The Broncos went into Baltimore and crushed the Ravens in December, and less than a month later, they will win comfortably again at home.
Prediction: Denver Broncos (-9 ½) Cover the Spread
Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos
Line: Denver -9.5
Total: Over/Under 46.5
Time: 4:30 PM EST on CBS
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