2013 NFL Picks: Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos Steelers Odds and Predictions – Free Monday Night Football Picks 9/23/2013

2013 NFL Picks: Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos Steelers Odds and Predictions – Free Monday Night Football Picks 9/23/2013: Over the years, Monday Night Football has developed to reputation for matching the league’s best against one another in primetime, but this week’s game doesn’t exactly live up to the hype. The Oakland Raiders (1-1) visit the Denver Broncos (2-0) in an AFC West battle between one of the best teams in the NFL and one of the worst. Not surprisingly, the matchup features an enormous spread by NFL standards, and the Broncos are favored by 14 ½ points at home.

Although Oakland enters Monday’s matchup with a 1-1 record, the lone victory came against a Jacksonville Jaguars team that is cruising to the first pick in the draft. The reality is that the Raiders are averaging just 18.0 points per game on offense, and while quarterback Terrelle Pryor has run for 162 yards, he has struggled mightily throwing the ball. On the flip side, the combination of Pryor and running back Darren McFadden has Oakland averaging almost 200 yards per game on the ground, and the defense is allowing just 15.0 points per game on the young season.

Through two games, the Broncos certainly look like the Super Bowl contender they were expected to be. They are leading the NFL in scoring, averaging 45.0 points per game. Peyton Manning has thrown nine touchdowns, and the addition of Wes Welker and emergence of Julius Thomas to a passing attack that already has Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas has made the offense even more explosive despite a slow start for rookie back Montee Ball. Defensively, an injury to corner Champ Bailey and the suspension of pass-rusher Von Miller has caused Denver to struggle a bit against the pass. However, the Broncos currently own the best run defense in football, and Bailey is likely to return Monday.

The Raiders Win If:

If the Raiders are going to pull off the upset, they have to control the clock with their ground game. Keeping Manning on the sidelines is the best way to contain him, and if Pryor and McFadden can steadily move the chains on long, sustained drives, Oakland has a chance to slow the pace of the game. Defensively, the Raiders need to limit as many big plays for Manning and company as possible. Shutting down the Broncos offense is probably out of the question, but if Oakland can at least make Denver work for its points, the score should remain manageable. In the end, the Raiders need to control the time of possession and make the game as low scoring and slow paced as possible to have any chance of winning.

The Broncos Win If:

A quick start offensively will go a long way to keeping the Broncos undefeated on the young season. For one, letting a heavy underdog like the Raiders stick around is only going to give them more confidence. More importantly, building an early lead will force Oakland to abandon its ground attack, which is currently the only thing the team does well on offense. On the defensive side of the ball, Denver needs to continue to do what it has done all year and stuff the run. In particular, the Broncos need to keep Pryor in the pocket and force him to beat their defense with his arm. If Denver gets its offense rolling early, stops Oakland from chewing up time with its ground attack and turns this game into a passing contest between Manning and Pryor, this game will get ugly.

Bottom Line:

There are times when good teams struggle with lesser competition because of a lack of focus or poor matchups, but don’t expect either to be the case Monday night. Manning always shows up prepared, and he will make sure the Broncos offense does, as well. Meanwhile, Denver’s stingy run defense is going give an already-limited Oakland offense fits. Pryor is still developing as a passer, and the Raiders’ complete lack of weapons at the receiver spot doesn’t help. Oakland simply doesn’t have the personnel to take advantage of the Broncos’ mediocre pass defense, and no team has the personnel to totally stop Manning. The Raiders are going to fall behind, and when they are forced to throw to try to catch up, they are only going to fall further behind. The spread is large, but the Broncos have the firepower to cover.

Prediction: Denver Broncos (-15 ½) Cover the Spread

Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos
Line: Denver -15.5
Total: Over/Under 49.5
Time: 8:30 PM EST on ESPN

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