2013 NFL Picks: Kansas City Chiefs @ Philadelphia Eagles Odds and Predictions – Free Thursday Night Football Picks 9/19/2013

2013 NFL Picks: Kansas City Chiefs @ Philadelphia Eagles Odds and Predictions – Free Thursday Night Football Picks 9/19/2013: When one door closes, another one opens, and Thursday night’s meeting between the Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) and Philadelphia Eagles (1-1) is a perfect example of this. Long-time Eagles’ coach Andy Reid was fired last season, opening the door of Oregon coach Chip Kelly and his up-tempo offensive system to make the jump to the NFL to coach Philadelphia. Meanwhile, Reid landed with Kansas City. While both coaches are making fresh starts in new place, Thursday’s meeting gives Kelly a chance to show that the Eagles made the right decision getting rid of Reid. However, it also gives Reid a chance to show the Philadelphia front office that it made a mistake. If he is going to get his revenge, Reid will have to do so as a 3-point underdog.

A year after having the worst record in the NFL, the Chiefs have already matched their 2012 win total. While the offense still isn’t explosive, the offseason addition of quarterback Alex Smith has upgraded the unit and allowed playmakers like running back Jamaal Charles and receiver Dwayne Bowe to make an impact. Perhaps more importantly, the Chiefs have yet to turn the ball over this year. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have also improved on the defensive end, allowing just 9.0 points per game this far. If the offense remains efficient and the defense remains stingy, Kansas City could make one of the biggest turnarounds of any team this year.

Although it hasn’t been perfect, Kelly’s offensive system has shown promise. In fact LeSean McCoy currently leads the NFL in rushing, and DeSean Jackson leads the league in receiving. Meanwhile, Michael Vick has combined for six touchdowns through two games and set a new career high in passing yards against San Diego last weekend. Overall, the Eagles are averaging 31.5 points per game. On the flip side, the Philadelphia defense looks as porous as ever, and the Eagles are allowing 30.0 points per game this far. If the current trends remain the norm, Philadelphia could end up in shootouts on a weekly basis.

The Chiefs Win If:

If the Chiefs are going to go into Philadelphia and knock off the Eagles, they need to take advantage of Philadelphia’s suspect defense in order to control its powerful offense. Vick and company can’t put points on the board if they are the sidelines, and by going on long, sustained drives early and often, Kansas City can limit the number of plays the Eagles’ offense gets to run. Controlling the pace and the time of possession will also keep the Chiefs’ defense rested and better prepared for Philadelphia’s up-tempo attack. When Kansas City’s defense is on the field, tackling in space will go a long way to slowing down an offense that relies heavily on quick throws and yards after the catch. In the end, the Chiefs can win the game if they move the ball consistently on the offensive end and limit the big plays for the Philadelphia offense.

The Eagles Win If:

A fast start will go a long way to helping the Eagles control this game. Kansas City’s offense isn’t really equipped to compete in a high-scoring shootout, and if Philadelphia can build an early lead, the Chiefs will have to adjust their conservative offensive approach to try to keep pace. Specifically, building a lead will somewhat eliminate Charles and the Kansas City ground attack, making the Chiefs one dimensional and reliant mainly on the Smith and the passing attack. Yes, the Eagles’ defense has been a mess, but if Philadelphia can make life easy for its struggling unit by scoring early and often, the Eagles should be able win the game.

Bottom Line:

Kelly has the Eagles putting plenty of points on the board, but Reid has also made an immediate impact, and he has the Chiefs playing well on both sides of the ball. It is worth noting that Philadelphia’s offense has feasted on a couple of weak defenses to open the year, but then again, the Chiefs got the equivalent of a bye in Week 1 by drawing the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars. However, Kansas City did earn an impressive win over Dallas in Week 2, and the Chiefs’ balance should allow them to control the tempo of the game. In the end, a high-powered offense can only do so much. Kansas City will control the clock, win the battle in the trenches and out-execute the Eagles to pick up the win.

Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs (+3) Cover the Spread

Kansas City Chiefs @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Philadelphia -3
Total: Over/Under 50.5
Time: 8:25 PM EST on NFL

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