2013 NFL Picks: Buffalo Bills @ Cleveland Browns Steelers Odds and Predictions – Free Thursday Night Football Picks 10/3/2013

2013 NFL Picks: Buffalo Bills @ Cleveland Browns Steelers Odds and Predictions – Free Thursday Night Football Picks 10/3/2013: Two of the biggest surprises of the young NFL season will get a chance to show their stuff on Thursday Night Football when the Buffalo Bills (2-2) go on the road to face the Cleveland Browns (2-2) to open Week 5 of the 2013 season. While the playoffs seemed out of reach for both teams when the season began, the respectable starts combined with the fact that both teams reside in weak divisions makes Thursday’s game a little more important than previously anticipated. Playing at home, the Browns are 3-point favorites.

When Buffalo announced that rookie E.J. Manuel would start the year under center, some growing pains seemed only natural. Yes, the Bills’ passing attack has been one the worst in the league, but Manuel has shown a knack for late-game heroics. He has also done enough to keep defenses honest in support of a ground attack that ranks second in the league thanks to the dynamic duo of C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson. On the defensive side of the ball, Buffalo has allowed a ton of yardage but has been average in terms of points allowed. The unit’s strength is the defensive front and Mario Williams and Marcell Dareus have already combined for 8.5 sacks.

After dropping the first two games of the year and then stunning the rest of the league by trading 2012 No. 3 overall pick Trent Richardson to Indianapolis, it appeared the Browns were waving the white flag. However, backup quarterback Brian Hoyer is 2-0 since taking over for the injured Brandon Weeden, throwing five touchdowns in two starts. Speedy receiver Josh Gordon and blossoming tight end Jordan Cameron have been his primary targets, and with the ground game basically nonexistent, Hoyer and company have done all the damage for the offense. Meanwhile, Cleveland’s defense has been excellent thus far, ranking in the top 10 against the pass and in the top five against the run. Corner Joe Haden leads the secondary while nose tackle Phil Taylor and linebacker Paul Kruger head the front seven.

The Bills Win If:

If the Bills are going to pull out a win on the road, they have to establish their ground game to some sort of a degree to take pressure of Manuel early in the game. The rookie really isn’t at the stage where he can carry Buffalo’s offense up and down the field on his own, but he can finish off drives and connect on some play-action passes if Spiller and Jackson are rolling. For his part, Manuel needs to be smart with the football and avoid making any turnovers that would set up the Browns with easy scoring chances. On the defensive side of the ball, the Bills need to get consistent pressure on Hoyer and force him to make plays on the run or with defenders in his face. Keep in mind that the Browns’ offense is fairly one dimensional so if Buffalo can rattle Hoyer, they should be in good shape. In the end, the Bills win this game if they can move the ball consistently on the ground on offense and make life miserable for Hoyer when Cleveland has the ball.

The Browns Win If:

If the Browns are going to extend their winning streak, they need to slow down Buffalo’s two-headed monster at running back and force the rookie Manuel to beat them. Whether they build an early lead and force the Bills to abandon the run to play catch-up or simply bottle up the Bills’ backs, the sooner Manuel has to try to win the game with his arm, the better chance the Browns have to win. When Cleveland has the ball, the Browns need to finish off drives with points. Piling up a ton of yards won’t mean anything unless they come away with points when they drive deep into Buffalo territory. If the Browns slow down Buffalo’s ground attack and Hoyer keeps Cleveland’s offense respectable, the Bills will have a tough time putting enough points on the board to win.

Bottom Line:

With their bend-but-don’t-break approach on defense and run-first style on offense, the Bills have been great at keeping games close. Heading into Thursday’s matchup, Buffalo has two wins by a combined four points and two losses by a combined nine. That being said, the Browns actually match up well with the Bills. Cleveland can stop the run with its defense, which is bad news for a Buffalo team that needs to feed of its ground attack to be effective. Meanwhile, the the size and athleticism of Jordan gives the Browns a matchup nightmare to look to in the red zone in order to finish off drives against the Bills. The game won’t be an offensive shootout by any means, but the Cleveland should have some scoring chances against a porous Buffalo defense. Perhaps more importantly, the Browns should be able control things with their defense .

Prediction: Cleveland Browns (-3) Cover the Spread       

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