2013 NFL NFC Championship Game Picks: San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Playoff Picks 1/20/2013: A spot in the Super Bowl will be on the line Sunday when the San Francisco 49ers (12-4-1) take on the Atlanta Falcons (14-3) in the NFC Championship Game. This will be the second year in a row San Francisco has played in the conference title game, and after losing in overtime at home last year to the New York Giants, the 49ers will try to return the favor by knocking off the Falcons in the Georgia Dome. Meanwhile, Atlanta is fresh off their first playoff win in four attempts in the Mike Smith-Matt Ryan era and will try to keep the momentum going all the way to New Orleans. The playoff monkey may be off the Falcons’ back, but they are still five-point underdogs in this matchup.
The league’ second-best scoring defense has carried the 49ers most of the year, but San Francisco’s decision to install dual-threat quarterback Collin Kaepernick as the starter in place of Alex Smith late in the year has brought the offense to life, as well. Thanks to a stout offensive line, the 49ers already had the fourth-best rushing offense in the NFL, and Kaepernick and running back Gore both topped 100 yards in San Francisco’s win over Green Bay in the last round of the playoffs. In fact, Kaeperinick set a record for rushing yards in a game by a QB. Throw in the emergence of Michael Crabtree at receiver, and the 49ers have created an explosive offense to match their star-studded defense just in the time for the postseason.
Atlanta turned its offense over to Ryan this year, and he promptly led the team to the sixth-best passing attack and a top-10 scoring offense. The Falcons stuck with the strategy against Seattle in their Divisional matchup, and receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones and tight end Tony Gonzalez were able to beat the Seahawks secondary on a regular basis. More importantly, Ryan and company beat the defense twice during a late-game drive that set up a game-winning field goal with less than a minute remaining. The Falcons had a bend-but-don’t-break defense in the regular season, surrendering a ton of yards by allowing the fourth-fewest points. The unit broke against the Seahawks, giving up a 20-point fourth-quarter lead and a ton of yards to Seattle QB Russell Wilson before the offense saved the day.
The 49ers Win If:
One of the crucial battles will be San Francisco’s secondary versus the Atlanta receivers. If the 49ers’ physical defenders are able to disrupt the routes and pressure Ryan, the Falcons’ offense is going to struggle. If Atlanta’s speed gives San Francisco’s defense problems, the Falcons are going to put some points on the board. Offensively, the 49ers need to find the right balance between big plays from Kaepernick and physical play from Gore and the power running game. If San Francisco is finding ways to finish off drivers with touchdowns rather than field goals, Atlanta’s defense is going to have a rough time. By taking away the big plays from the Falcons’ passing attack and making Atlanta’s defense pay for its bend-but-don’t-break style, the 49ers can move on to the Super Bowl.
The Falcons Win If:
Atlanta has to establish its passing game in order to generate offense, and if that is going to happen, the Falcons’ receivers have to win at the line of scrimmage and the offensive line has to protect Ryan. San Francisco’s corners and safeties are physical and hard-hitting, but Atlanta’s weapons in the passing game are some of the fastest in the league. If the Falcons are able to hit big plays in the passing game, especially early, they are going to be in great shape. Defensively, Atlanta needs to keep Kaepernick in the pocket as much as possible, and playing ahead from will make that task a little easier. At the end of the day, the Falcons will march on to New Orleans if this game is decided by which quarterback can make more plays from inside the pocket.
Bottom Line:
Atlanta’s receivers are the real deal, and they will undoubtedly make a few plays during the course of the game. However, this is a San Francisco defense that has helped the 49ers get past Drew Brees and the Saints and Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in the postseason the past two years and has pushed Eli Manning and the Giants into overtime. This unit just isn’t going to let Ryan and coming control the game. Meanwhile, the Falcons’ defense has had serious issues controlling mobile QBs. Carolina’s Cam Newton tallied more than 700 yards of offense in two games against Atlanta during the regular season, and last weekend, Wilson lit up the unit for 445 total yards. Kaepernick is absolutely on fire entering this matchup, and he is exactly the type of player the Falcons have been unable to stop all year. San Francisco’s offense is going to be too much for Atlanta to contain, and the 49ers’ defense will force Ryan into a few mistakes as he tries to keep the Falcons in the game.
Prediction: San Francisco 49ers (-4) Cover the Spread
San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: San Francisco -4
Total: Over/Under 48.5
Time: 3:00 PM EST on FOX
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