2013 NFL MVP Odds and Predictions – Peyton Manning the Vegas Favorite: The NFL MVP Award is the top individual honor a player can receive. Both historically and recently, quarterbacks have won the award the majority of the time, but last year, Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson snapped a run of five straight QBs winning the MVP Award. Of course, it took a near record-breaking season less than a year removed from knee surgery for Peterson to beat out Denver quarterback Peyton Manning and denying the Broncos QB a fifth-career MVP. Both players are among the contenders for the 2013 NFL MVP Award, and with that in mind, here is a closer look at the top candidates for the honor heading into the 2013 NFL season.
The Favorites
While he didn’t was unable to capture his second straight MVP last year, Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers did lead the NFL in quarterback rating and touchdown percentage for the second consecutive year. Plain and simple, the guy is the most efficient passer in the NFL today, and he has thrown 84 touchdowns compared to just 14 interceptions over the past two seasons. Rodgers has become a victim of his own success to a degree because his brilliance has become expected. That being said, he still has plenty of weapons around him in Green Bay’s pass-friendly offense, and Rodgers is a near lock to post the type of gaudy numbers that will have him in the MVP hunt.
He took a year off as he recovered from neck surgery, but that didn’t stop Denver quarterback Peyton Manning from nearly took home the MVP Award last year. He led the NFL in completion percentage and also ranked in the top three in quarterback rating and touchdowns while leading the Denver Broncos to the best record in the AFC. This year, Manning is another year removed from surgery, and the Broncos added slot specialist Wes Welker in free agency to an already-loaded receiving corps. Another monstrous statistical season should be on tap for Manning, and if the Broncos are again one of the league’s best teams, he will be tough to overlook when it comes time to hand out the MVP.
The Dark Horses
Defending NFL MVP Adrian Peterson would seem like an obvious choice to repeat in 2013. After all, less than a year removed from knee surgery he led the league with 2,097 rush yards and nearly broke the single-season record. However, Peterson might be his own worst enemy as a drop-off in his numbers is almost inevitable. Not to mention the fact that Peterson basically carried the Vikings into the playoffs last year with a big performance in the season finale. Don’t get me wrong, he is still the best back in the league and could easily win back-to-back rushing titles. That being said, Peterson basically has to break Eric Dickerson’s record and carry Minnesota back to the postseason to win another MVP, and that won’t be easy.
In 2012, New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees led the NFL in both passing yards and touchdowns for the second year in a row. However, the Saints finished just 7-9 and missed the playoffs while Brees had 19 interceptions and failed to lead the league in completion percentage for the first time since 2008. Enter head coach Sean Payton, who will return from his year-long suspension for his involvement in the bounty scandal. With Payton back to orchestrate the offense, Brees’ numbers and the Saints’ record should both be much more impressive in 2013, and Brees’ MVP chances should benefit as a result of both.
He has led the NFL in receiving yards in each of the past two seasons, and Detroit’s Calvin Johnson set a single-season record with 1,964 yards last year. He also led the NFL with 122 catches in 2012. Unfortunately for Johnson, the Lions weren’t great as a team, and he somehow managed just five touchdowns. Still, his record-breaking season has made him a household name, and he is undoubtedly the best receiver in the game. If Detroit makes the playoffs while Johnson leads the NFL in receiving one again, he has a chance to net himself MVP honors.
More than any other player in the NFL, it seems like New England quarterback Tom Brady is taken for granted. He puts up great numbers every year while leading the Patriots to the playoffs regardless of his supporting cast. Last year was no exception as Brady threw for 34 scores and just eight picks while the Patriots went 12-4 and had the highest-scoring offense in the NFL. If he is going to have another incredible season in 2013, he will have to do it without the help of Aaron Hernandez, Brandon Lloyd, Wes Welker and possibly Rob Gronkowski for some of the year. If Brady keeps his own numbers and New England’s record among the NFL’s best with this cast of characters, he will be a contender for the MVP Award.
Sleeper Special
After taking over as the starter midway through last year, San Francisco quarterback Colin Kaepernick terrorized defenses with his arm and his legs and took the 49ers within one play of winning the Super Bowl. This year, he is set for as full season under center for a San Francisco team that is favored by many to win the Super Bowl. Keep in mind that had he started the entire season, Kaepernick was on pace to throw for more than 3,600 yards, run for more than 800 yards and score a combine 30 touchdowns. If Kaepernick has a big season throwing and running the ball while the 49ers look like the championship-caliber team everyone expects them to be, his first full season as a starter could end with an MVP Award.
Odds to win the 2013 NFL MVP
701 Aaron Rodgers +800
702 Adrian Peterson +800
706 Andrew Luck +2000
707 Andy Dalton +5000
710 Arian Foster +3000
711 Ben Roethlisberger +2000
713 Cam Newton +3000
714 Calvin Johnson +1500
715 Chris Johnson +2000
717 Colin Kaepernick +800
726 Drew Brees +800
729 Eli Manning +2000
732 Jay Cutler +5000
734 Joe Flacco +4000
735 Josh Freeman +5000
740 Marshawn Lynch +2000
742 Matthew Stafford +2000
744 Matt Ryan +1200
745 Matt Schaub +3000
747 Michael Vick +2000
751 Peyton Manning +650
754 Ray Rice +5000
757 Robert Griffin III +1800
759 Russell Wilson +1500
761 Steven Jackson +4000
764 Tom Brady +800
765 Tony Romo +2500
769 Wes Welker +4000
770 Field +800
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