2013 NFL MNF Picks: Indianapolis Colts @ San Diego Chargers Odds and Predictions – Free Monday Night Football Picks 10/14/2013

2013 NFL MNF Picks: Indianapolis Colts @ San Diego Chargers Odds and Predictions – Free Monday Night Football Picks 10/14/2013: A pair of AFC foes will battle it out on Monday Night Football when the Indianapolis Colts (4-1) take on the San Diego Chargers (2-3). It wasn’t all that long ago that Peyton Manning and the Colts seemed to face LaDainian Tomlinson and the Chargers on a regular basis, but these days only Indianapolis looks like a playoff contender, and the Colts enter the game sitting atop the East Division. San Diego is three games out in the AFC West, but a victory Monday night would get the Chargers back to the .500 mark and keep them in the thick of the wild card conversation. San Diego enters the matchup as a 1 ½-point underdog at home.

For Indianapolis, success has been a total team effort. The Colts roll into Monday’s showdown averaging the sixth-most points in the NFL and allowing the fifth-fewest points. Quarterback Andrew Luck has been even in better in his second season, and a surprise trade for running back Trent Richardson has added a power element to a ground attack that ranks fourth in the league. On the defensive side of the ball, Indianapolis has struggled at stopping the run, but the Colts have made life rough on opposing QBs. The Colts are currently allowing the sixth-fewest passing yards, and Robert Mathis already has 9.5 sacks for a unit that has 15.0 overall.

Thanks to a struggling defense and stagnant ground game, the Chargers have been forced to live and die with the arm of quarterback Philip Rivers. He has responded by throwing for more than 1,600 yards and 13 scores, spreading the wealth to a variety of options, including tight end Antonio Gates. Meanwhile, running back Ryan Matthews has been unable to get going, and the Chargers are averaging just 91.2 yards per game on the ground. Defensively, San Diego ranks 27th against the pass and 24th against the run. The unit is also allowing 25.8 points per game.

The Colts Win If:

If the Colts are going to win the game, they need to maintain a balanced attack on offense. Facing a struggling San Diego defense, the last thing Indianapolis needs to do is get one dimensional or to hit big plays on every position instead of simply moving the ball consistently up and down the field. Defensively, the Colts simply need their pass rush and secondary to continue to play well in order to slow down Rivers and the San Diego passing attack. If Luck and company attack the Chargers’ defense on the ground and through the air while the Indianapolis defense makes life tough on Rivers, the Colts will pick up a road win.

The Chargers Win If:

For San Diego to take down the favored Colts, the offensive line has to give Rivers time to work. The Chargers do have a variety of weapons in the passing game, but if Rivers is constantly on the run and forced to make early throws, the San Diego offense is going to struggle to move the ball and put points on the board. Defensively, the Chargers have to try to take away any big plays from the Indianapolis offense. It is unlikely that the porous San Diego defense is going to suddenly get fixed, but if the unit can at least make Luck and the Colts work to move the ball and score points, the Chargers could keep the score manageable and give Rivers a fighting chance.

Bottom Line:

Matchups mean everything in the NFL, and the Colts are just a tough matchup for the Chargers for a variety of reasons. For one, Luck and company had no trouble shredding the stingy defenses of San Francisco and Seattle to the tune of 30.5 points per game. Against a porous San Diego unit, points should be easy to come by. Meanwhile, the Chargers’ ground game is all but nonexistent, and the strength of the Colts’ defense has been the secondary. Rivers is likely going to have his moments, but expecting him to shred a stingy secondary and keep pace with the Indianapolis offense just isn’t realistic. The Chargers just don’t have enough balance to take down the Colts.

Prediction: Indianapolis Colts (-1 ½) Cover the Spread    

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