2012 Super Bowl XLVI Picks and Predictions: New York Giants @ New England Patriots Odds and Lines – Free Super Bowl Picks 2/5/2012

Free 2012 Super Bowl XLVI Picks and Predictions: New York Giants vs New England patriots Super Bowl XLVI Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on NBC 2/5/12: In 2008, the New York Giants engineered one of the biggest upsets in Super Bowl history, knocking off the then-undefeated and record-setting New England Patriots 17-14. Four years later, the two franchises will meet once again with a championship up for grabs. While comparisons will no doubt be made between the ’08 classic and Sunday’s Super Bowl XLVI, the truth is that both teams are much different than they were four years ago. Yes, some big names remain the same on both sides, but offensively and defensively, these are two different groups. One thing that does remain the same is the Patriots being favored, albeit by just 2 ½-points this time around.

Instead of looking to Super Bowl XLII for insight into Sunday’s game, a regular season meeting in Foxboro earlier this year is probably a better indication of what to expect. The Giants won 24-20, scoring with 15 seconds remaining to snap a 20-game home winning streak for New England. Patriots’ quarterback Tom Brady threw for nearly 350 yards in the game, but he also threw a pair of interceptions as the Giants defense forced four turnovers. Both teams scored less than their season average, but New England’s offense vastly underperformed. Neither team could move the ball on the ground, forcing Brady and New York QB Eli Manning to throw the ball a combined 88 times.

A pass-happy theme could be on tap for the rematch as well. After all, the Patriots had the second-best passing attack in the NFL this season, while the Giants had the fifth-best passing offense. It’s all worth noting that both defenses ranked among the four worst in the league in terms of allowing passing yardage. In other words, the strength of both offenses happens to be the weakness of both defenses. It only makes sense that Brady and Manning will take to the air early and often once again.

There is plenty of firepower at the disposal of both signal callers, but each offense takes a different approach to the passing game. The Giants utilize one of the best trip receivers in the NFL. Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz both topped 1,000 yards this season, and Mario Manningham has finding the end zone with regularity since returning from injury. All three receivers have the speed to score from anywhere on the field, which creates nightmares for any secondary. Meanwhile, the Patriots use a two tight end scheme, leaning heavily on Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, along with slot receiver Wes Welker. Welker topped 1,500 yards this season, while Gronkowski set a NFL record for tight ends with 17 touchdown catches. The unique combination of size and speed from the New England tight ends creates mismatches on every snap.

An unexpected X-factor in the game could be the health of Gronkowski. He injured his ankle in the final minutes of the AFC Championship Game, and if he isn’t at full strength, the Patriots’ offense could struggle. Gronkowski’s size has made him an ideal safety valve for Brady, even in tight coverage. His surprising speed has been almost unstoppable in the open field, and has been especially deadly inside the red zone. All signs point to Gronkowski being on the field, but if he can’t effectively run the same routes he normally does, everyone else’s role on offense changes. Even with two weeks to prepare, that is a tough adjustment for any team to make.

While the offenses may have the star power, the winner will likely be decided in the trenches. Both defenses have strong defensive lines, and there is nothing like pressure on the pocket to disrupt a quarterback. New England’s line is anchored by massive nose tackle Vince Wilfork, and the unit’s ability to switch between a 4-3 and a 3-4 base creates added confusion. The Giants on the other hand rely on arguably the best trio of pass rushers in the NFL. Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora and Jason Pierre-Paul are relentless, and they powered New York to the fourth-most sacks in the league this season.

Looking at the matchup, the Giants defensive line appears to have the edge. The line already helped keep Brady in check during the regular season meeting with New England, and the same group caused problems for Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers and the highest-scoring offense in the NFL in the first round of the playoffs. The Giants are able to bring pressure without blitzing extra defenders. And they had an incredible 34.0 sacks when rushing four players or less. The line is also able to bring pressure up the middle and off the edge. Meanwhile, the Patriots bring pressure mainly up the middle, and Manning has been adept at rolling out of the pocket and finding receivers down the field. Add it up, and it could be a long, painful night for Brady.

After all, Brady and the Patriots’ offense have had their worst performances against opponents with strong pass rushes. New England managed just 20 points against DeMarcus Ware and the Dallas Cowboys’ defense, just 17 points against the top-rated Pittsburgh Steelers’ defense, and just 20 points against New York. The Patriots were 1-2 in those games. In the playoffs, they managed just 23 points against the Baltimore Ravens. The trend seems clear. Putting pressure on Brady is the key to slowing down the New England offense. The Giants can bring pressure as good as any team in the NFL.

One factor that can’t be completely overlooked is the mindset of Brady. With three Super Bowls already on his resume, he has nothing left to prove. However, he can cement his legacy even further with a win against the Giants. A loss would make him 0-2 against Manning on the sport’s biggest stage, and while he still has his championships to fall back on, it would definitely put a dent in his playoff aura. Brady has been playing with a chip on his shoulder all season, and this game against this opponent is a golden opportunity for redemption.

While momentum and confidence all play a role, football is all about matchups at the end of the day, and the Patriots just don’t match up well with New York. Manning and the Giants’ trio of receivers should have plenty of big play opportunities against a porous New England secondary. Meanwhile, the Giants’ front four on defense can apply the same type of pressure that seems to be the only way to slow down the Patriots’ high-powered offense. It won’t be the monumental upset it was in 2008, but the Giants should emerge victorious once again.

Super Bowl XLVI Predictions: New York Giants (+2½) Cover the Spread and UNDER 54.5

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