2012 NFL Playoffs Picks: New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 1/14/12

Free NFL Divisional Playoffs Picks: New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers NFL Playoffs Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on FOX 1/14/12: All season long the New Orleans Saints (14-3) have dealt with the criticism that they can’t win outdoors and that they can’t win on the road. They will get a chance to prove the doubters wrong this Saturday when they visit the San Francisco 49ers (13-3) in the NFC Divisional round of the playoffs. As the top team in a weak NFC West, San Francisco knows all about having to silence the critics as well. While both sides have a chip on their shoulder, whichever team wins this weekend won’t have to worry about fighting for respect anymore. Despite playing at home, the 49ers are 3 ½-point underdogs.

To be fair, the criticism faced by both teams is somewhat warranted. All three of New Orleans’ losses came on the road, and the Saints’ league-leading offense wasn’t nearly as potent. The Saints averaged more than 40 points a game at home, but they scored 23 points or less in four of their eight road games. Not to mention that New Orleans’ two worst scoring games came on the road at Tampa Bay and on the road at Tennessee. Meanwhile, the 49ers really don’t have a signature win on their resume. A victory over the New York Giants would be the closest thing, but San Francisco lost at home to Dallas and looked bad in a road loss to Baltimore.

On the field, the game should be a battle of strengths, with the Saints’ explosive offense going up against San Francisco’s stingy defense. New Orleans ranked second in the NFL, averaging 34.2 points per game. Meanwhile, San Francisco ranked second in scoring defense, allowing just 14.3 points per game. The 49ers’ defense also ranked second with 23 interceptions, which could pay huge dividends against the record-setting passing attack. While the Saints are unlikely to score 40-plus points as they did against Detroit in the Wild Card round, the chances of San Francisco completing shutting New Orleans’ offense down are slim as well. The end result should be an interesting matchup where neither team is in its comfort zone.

After shattering the record for passing yards in a season, New Orleans’ quarterback Drew Brees will be at the center of everything the Saints do offensively. He has plenty of weapons at his disposal, but the big plays he has been known for throughout the year could be tough to come by. In addition to the opportunistic secondary, San Francisco also finished the year with 42.0 sacks. The 49ers will likely make Brees move the ball down the field slowly and methodically, which could frustrate the MVP candidate. Check down options like Jimmy Graham and running back Darren Sproles will be major factors.

For San Francisco, the power running game has been the calling card of the offense all season. Running back Frank Gore has been the workhorse, finishing sixth in the NFL with more than 1,200 yards. By controlling the tempo of the game and dominating the time of possession, Gore and the running game have allowed the stout defensive unit plenty of time to rest. The 49ers will have to continue to employ that strategy this weekend to keep Brees and company on the sideline as much as possible.

The X-factor in the game could be San Francisco QB Alex Smith. He hasn’t been asked to do a lot this season, but he has limited his mistakes and kept defenses honest. That being said, Brees completed more passes than Smith attempted, and the 49ers can’t afford to fall behind and become a pass-first team. If Smith tries to do too much and starts turning the ball over, things could get ugly for San Francisco.

In the end, the 49ers’ defense should be able to limit the big plays from the Saints’ offense. Unlike last weekend’s shootout with the Lions, New Orleans will have to be a bit more methodical in its approach. Playing outside will work in San Francisco’s favor, and a physical, uglier game could be on tap. The 49ers have exceeded expectations all year, and while the New Orleans has been the flashier of the two teams, running the ball and playing tough defense has always been for a recipe for success in the playoffs. This game should go down to the wire.

 Prediction: San Francisco (+3 ½) Cover the Spread

Free NFL Football Picks and Predictions: San Francisco 49ers +3.5

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