2012 Week 8 NFL Picks: Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Minnesota Vikings Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 10/25/2012: Two teams heading in opposite directions will go head to head Thursday night when the Minnesota Vikings (5-2) play host to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-4). While the Vikings have emerged as surprise contenders in the loaded NFC North, the Buccaneers are struggling just to stay in touch with the undefeated Atlanta Falcons in the NFC South. Not surprisingly, Minnesota is a 6 ½-point favorite in this matchup.
Offensively, the two teams are polar opposites. Minnesota uses a run-first attack led by star running back Adrian Peterson. The Vikings rank seventh in the NFL in rushing, and Peterson is averaging a solid 4.8 yards per carry less than a year removed from knee surgery. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has slowly abandoned their running game in recent weeks in favor of a pass-heavy attack. The results have been promising as quarterback Josh Freeeman has found a groove with receivers Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams, and the Buccaneers are averaging 32.0 points per game in their past two contests.
On the defensive side of the ball, Minnesota has been solid, ranking just outside the top 10 against the run and the pass. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, has been excellent against the run and horrific against the pass. Entering Thursday’s game, the Buccaneers own the third-best rushing defense in the NFL but rank 31st against the pass, allowing more than 320 yards per game through the air.
The Buccaneers Win If:
Tampa Bayhasn’t really had much balance from the running game this year, but that shouldn’t be a big issue against Minnesota. The Vikings have been solid up front against the run, and while the secondary has been better, it is still just one year removed from allowing the most passing touchdowns in the NFL. If Freeman can continue to hook up with Jackson and Mike Williams for big plays in the passing game, Tampa Bay should be able to put some points on the board. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers’ third-ranked rush defense needs to keep Peterson in check and force Ponder to carry the load. If this game becomes a battle between Freeman and Ponder, Tampa Bay should prevail.
The Vikings Win If:
Facing a porous Tampa Bay secondary, Minnesota needs to use its passing game to soften up a stingy Buccaneers’ rush defense. If Ponder can connect on a few big plays early in the game and stretch the field, it will make life much easier on Peterson. The Vikings don’t need to abandon their run-first attack, but they don’t want to play completely to the strength of the Tampa Bay defense either. On defense, Minnesota needs Jared Allen and company to pressure the pocket. If the Vikings can force Freeman into quick throws and eliminate the deep ball, the Buccaneers are going to have trouble establishing consistent offense. If Minnesota can eliminate the big play on defense while hitting on a few of its own on offense, the Vikings can score the win.
Bottom Line:
Although Tampa Bay definitely has some issues on both sides of the ball, the Buccaneers actually match up fairly well with the Vikings. Tampa Bay has one of the best run defenses in the NFL, and the Buccaneers are particularly tough against inside, power running backs like Peterson. Meanwhile, Ponder has been inconsistent as a passer and has struggled to complete longer passes. Not to mention the fact that he is coming off a game when he threw for less than 60 yards. The Buccaneers should be able to limit Minnesota’s biggest strength while having their own weaknesses in the secondary somewhat protected. More importantly, the Freeman-to-Jackson connection should stay hot against an average Vikings’ secondary that hasn’t had to face many strong passing games. Even if the Buccaneers don’t pull the upset, they should be able to cover the spread.
Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6 ½) Cover the Spread
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Minnesota -6.5
Total: Over/Under 43
Time: 8:30 PM EST on NFL Network
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