2012 NFL Picks: Denver Broncos @ Atlanta Falcons Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL MNF Picks 9/17/2012: Denver’s Peyton Manning is off to a fast start as he tries to prove that he is still the same player that won the MVP Award four times. Atlanta’s Matt Ryan is off to a similarly quick start as he tries to prove that he deserves to be considered one of the elite players at the position in the NFL today. Both players will get a chance to make another statement Monday night when the Broncos head to the Georgia Dome to face the Falcons. Atlanta demolished Kansas City in their season opener, while Denver picked up a big win against Pittsburgh. With both teams looking sharp out of the gate, Monday’s meeting has all the makings of a competitive matchup. The oddsmakers agree, and the Broncos are just three-point underdogs on the road.
With Manning joining Denver in the offseason and the Falcons transitioning to a pass-first attack, both offenses are strikingly similar. Atlanta has the superior receivers with the duo of Roddy White and Julio Jones, but Denver’s Demaryius Thomas is an explosive receiver in his own right, and Eric Decker and Brandon Stokley looked in sync with Manning in the opener. Atlanta also has a solid tight end in Tony Gonzalez and a power back in Michael Turner, and Denver counters with tight end Jacob Tamme and running back Willis McGahee. Both sides use the run game just to keep defenses honest, and with plenty of firepower at their disposal, Manning and Ryan are likely heading for a high-scoring battle.
Monday’s game will likely come down to which side can make the most plays on defense, and the edge in that area should go to the Broncos. Outside linebacker Von Miller and defensive end Elvis Dumervil are two of the top pass rushers in football, and while Atlanta’s offensive line is a solid all-around group, this is the first year the unit will be predominantly pass blocking. History also says that Ryan becomes a mediocre quarterback when making throws under pressure. Granted, no defense is going to bottle up the Falcons’ receivers for an entire game, but Denver does have to solid corners in Tracy Porter and Champ Bailey that can limit the damage. Add it up, and the Broncos have the personnel on defense to give Ryan and company some headaches.
The same cannot be said for Atlanta’s defense. The Falcons lost their top cover corner in Brent Grimes for the year in the opener, leaving them with Dunta Robinson and Asante Samuel. Samuel remains a solid player, but Robinson has never lived up to his lofty draft status. Throw in the fact that Atlanta’s safeties are average at best, and Manning should have favorable matchups to work with most of the night. Not to mention that the loss of Grimes forces other players into different roles, and Manning is still one of the best in the business at taking advantage of weakness a defense has.
One player doesn’t always make or break a football team, but the loss of Grimes for the Falcons definitely handicaps them in this particular matchup. Manning and Ryan will be airing the ball out early and often, and while Denver has two experienced corners, Atlanta will be missing its best cover man. Throw in the fact that the Broncos have the better pass rush and a quarterback that has won his share of big games, and there is no reason that Manning and company can’t pull out a big road win. Both sides will make plenty of big plays on offense, but Denver’s ability to also make big plays on defense will allow them to cover the spread.
Prediction: Denver Broncos (+3) Cover the Spread
Denver Broncos @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Atlanta -3
Total: Over/Under 52.5
Time: 8:30 PM EST on ESPN
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