2012 NFL Picks: Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 9/27/2012: Thursday night’s meeting between the Cleveland Browns (0-3) and Baltimore Ravens (2-1) could be a painful reminder that not all rivalry games are necessarily competitive matchups. A natural rivalry is inevitable between two teams from the same division, especially when the Ravens’ franchise used to be in Cleveland less than two decades ago. However, these two teams couldn’t have different expectations in 2012. Baltimore is already looking like the best team in the AFC, while Cleveland is winless, inexperienced and looking like a potential candidate for the No. 1 pick in next April’s draft. Plain and simple, the Ravens should win this game. The question for bettors is whether or not they can cover the 12-point spread.
It’s tough to blame Cleveland for its struggles. After all, the Browns are starting a rookie quarterback in Brandon Weeden and a rookie running back in Trent Richardson. Not to mention the fact that they have next to nothing as far as weapons at the wide receiver position. A respectable offensive line is the lone bright spot on an otherwise inexperienced offense. The production has been understandably unimpressive, and the Browns currently rank outside the top 20 in terms of rushing yards and passing yards and are averaging just 19.0 points per game.
On the plus side, the normally stingy Baltimore defense hasn’t quite been its typically elite self while dealing with the loss of sack master Terrell Suggs. Granted, the unit has had to face a pair of offenses ranked in the top 10 in terms of scoring in the first three games, but until the defense is back at full strength, Ray Lewis and company are more like a top-10 defense rather than the top-five group they are used to being. That being said, there is only so much damage Cleveland can do on offense when Richardson and the running game doesn’t have a reliable passing game to keep defenses honest. The Ravens’ defense might not be the scariest bunch in the NFL, but the unit is still more than capable of keeping a weak Cleveland offense in check to the tune of only 10-14 points.
The real deciding factor in whether or not Baltimore can cover the spread Thursday night is the play of the Browns’ defense. Despite giving up a ton of yardage, the unit has actually done a decent job of bending but not breaking. In fact, Cleveland hasn’t lost a game by more than 10 points this season. However, the Browns were helped tremendously by a rash of Philadelphia turnovers in the season opener, and last weekend, Buffalo was forced to play their third-string running back. The best offense Cleveland has faced thus far was Cincinnati in Week 2, and in that matchup, the Browns surrendered 31 points. Their saving grace in that game was that the Bengals have a dreadful defense in their own right, allowing Cleveland to hang close.
That won’t be the case against Baltimore. The Ravens have one of the most balanced offensive attacks in the NFL with Ray Rice leading an excellent running game and quarterback Joe Flacco leading a constantly improving passing attack. The emergence of second-year receiver Torrey Smith as a deep threat and tight end Dennis Pitta as an option over the middle of the field has really taken Baltimore’s offense to a new level. Last weekend’s 31-30 win against New England was a prime example of how far this offense has come.
In the end, the Ravens’ offense is too much for Cleveland’s defense to contain, and Baltimore’s defense is more than capable of keeping the Browns’ anemic offense in check. Rice, Flacco and the balanced Baltimore offense should have no problem putting up 30-plus points on their home field. Meanwhile, Cleveland will be lucky to put together a couple of scoring drivers. Do the math, and the Ravens should be able to cover the spread, even at 12 points.
Prediction: Baltimore Ravens (-12) Cover the Spread
Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Baltimore -11.5
Total: Over/Under 44
Time: 8:20 PM EST on NFL Network
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