2012 Week 16 NFL Picks: Atlanta Falcons @ Detroit Lions Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 12/22/2012: When the Atlanta Falcons (12-2) go on the road to face the Detroit Lions (4-10) Saturday night, there will be two very different agendas at work. With a win, Atlanta can secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Detroit on the other hand has been put of the playoff picture for several weeks, but Calvin Johnson is on pace to break Jerry Rice’s single-season record for receiving yards. I wouldn’t go as far as to say the Lions don’t care about winning the game, but helping Johnson set the record would be a silver lining to an otherwise disappointing season. Of course, I doubt the Lions would complain if they put a hold on the Falcons’ celebration in the process. Not surprisingly, Atlanta is the favorite in this matchup, giving 4 ½ points.
Atlanta has undergone a transition this year, moving from a balanced offensive approach to a pass-first philosophy. Giving the keys of the offense to quarterback Matt Ryan has worked out well, and he enters Saturday’s game ranked fifth in the NFL in passing yards and touchdowns. With targets like Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez at his disposal, Ryan has helped the Atlanta offense rank seventh in scoring this season. Defensively, the Falcons have been a bend-but-don’t-break unit. Despite ranking outside the top 15 against the pass and outside the top 20 against the run in terms of yards per game, Atlanta owns the fourth-best scoring defense.
For Detroit, Johnson’s pursuit of the receiving yards record also sums up the offense’s limitation. Quarterback Matthew Stafford leads the most prolific passing attack in terms of yards, but turnovers, no running game and the lack of a No. 2 option at receiver have the Lions sitting outside the top 10 in points per game. A poor defense hasn’t helped matters. Detroit is currently allowing the fifth-most points per game in the NFL, and despite a talented defensive line, the Lions are just mediocre in terms of sacking opposing QBs.
The Falcons Win If:
When the Falcons have struggled, it has been tied directly to poor play from Ryan. More specifically, Ryan tends to struggle when defenses are able to pressure him up the middle and force him out of the pocket or force him to throw with defenders in his face. If the Atlanta offensive line wins the battle against the underachieving Detroit pass rush, Ryan should have plenty of chances to gash a suspect Lions’ secondary. On the defensive side of the ball, Atlanta needs to make sure that the big plays Detroit does make in the passing game don’t result in scores. The Falcons know how to limit opposing offenses in the red zone, and as long as Johnson and company don’t have many touchdowns to go along with their yards, Atlanta is going to be in great shape.
The Lions Win If:
If Detroit is going to pull off the upset, it is going to take a big effort from its defensive line. Ryan has shown time and time again that he can gash a secondary if he has time in the pocket. If Ndamukong Suh, Cliff Avril and others consistently pressure Ryan, the Lions have a chance to disrupt the Falcons’ offense. Meanwhile, Stafford and the Detroit offense have to find a way to convert in the red zone. Passing for a ton of yards does no good if the Lions’ drives don’t end with six points. If Detroit can keep Ryan on the run all night and make the most of their good drives, they can upset the NFC’s best team.
Bottom Line:
These two teams have been polar opposites all year. The Falcons have gone 12-2 because of their ability to make the most of the yards they get on offense and limit the points they allow on defense. Meanwhile, Detroit seems to shoot itself in the foot repeatedly on both sides of the ball and are currently mired in a six-game losing streak. More importantly, Atlanta’s defense has the perfect philosophy for defending Johnson. Despite more than 1,600 yards, he has managed just five touchdowns. Even a receiver as physically and athletically dominant as Johnson can be covered when the field shrinks in the red zone. The Falcons are already one of the best teams in the NFL at defending in the red zone, and they will be able to damage control on Detroit’s best offensive weapon. From there, Ryan and company should enjoy a big day throwing the ball against the Lions’ defense and clinch home-field advantage with a win.
Prediction: Atlanta Falcons (-4 ½) Cover the Spread
Atlanta Falcons @ Detroit Lions
Line: Atlanta -4.5
Total: Over/Under 49.5
Time: 8:30 PM EST on ESPN
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